SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 5 July 2025

⏱️ 46 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:38 - Industry performance update

07:38 - Is trend thriving?

09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview

16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar

18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?

27:26 - The value of long term track records

34:30 - Is trend following flawed?

37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?

44:32 - What is up for next week?

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Transcript

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0:00.0	you're about to join neils costrop larsen on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing
0:07.2	and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy welcome to the
0:14.2	systematic investor series welcome welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Alan Don and I, Neil Castle Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a roles-based investor.
0:34.5	Alan, how are you doing? It's great to be back with you this week.
0:37.7	Very good.
0:38.2	Yeah, all good here.
0:39.1	How are you doing?
0:40.2	Doing well, except we might be completely frank about it at the top of the hour.
0:45.9	And that is, we're having a little bit of technical problems.
0:49.4	Most specifically, I'm having technical problems today.
0:52.1	So hopefully it all goes well.
0:54.0	But of course, it's always stressful when that happens.
0:57.0	We've got a solid lineup of topics.
0:59.1	That's why we really want to make sure we get this recorded today.
1:04.1	But before we get into all of that, Alan, as usual,
1:06.8	always curious to hear what we've been hitting your radar the last few weeks.
1:11.6	Yeah, it's been action-packed and plenty to talk about as usual.
1:17.9	I suppose with equities hitting all-time highs again this week,
1:21.9	worth talking about that.
1:24.6	I saw a post which highlighted that was the fastest recovery from a 20% drawdown for
1:31.6	the S&P 500 in the last number of decades since the post-war period. So 20, I think it was a 21%
1:39.4	drawdown and a recovery back to new highs in 57 days. So we've seen that kind of fast recovery before.
	...

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