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Top Traders Unplugged

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 28 June 2025

⏱️ 73 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?

01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable

02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules

05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy

07:33 - Industry performance update

16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?

27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following

37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?

41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?

52:26 - Why are bond...

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing

0:07.2

and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.2

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:28.0

Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investors here with Rob Carver and I, Neil's Castle Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global markets through the lens

0:32.2

of a rules-based investor. Rob, wonderful to be back with you this week. Hope you are well. How things

0:37.1

in the UK?

0:38.5

It's hot, which is a mixed blessing, I think. But yesterday I came with the perfect strategy.

0:44.6

I spent the whole day in a beautifully air-conditioned conference room at a conference.

0:49.4

And then after the conference, we were invited up to the roof terrace, which had a fantastic

0:53.3

view of the Londonondon skyline and

0:55.3

there's a quite a pleasant evening and a very nice place to spend the evening drinking free wine and looking out on a wonderful view and the temperature got down to the point where it was very pleasant indeed

1:04.8

sounds like a good day in the office for sure um we got a great episode lined up, lots of interesting topics, three questions,

1:12.2

some articles, but of course, as we normally do before we head into all of that, always

1:19.0

curious to know what's come across your radar lately? Well, Niels, unfortunately, I'm going

1:25.0

to break one of the Cardinal Rules of TTIU, which isn't, of course,

1:28.7

the first rule, which is don't talk about TTE. I'm afraid I have been unfaithful and I have

1:32.5

been listening to another podcast. Yeah, so it's the Money Stuff podcast by Matt Levine and

1:39.6

Katie Greifield of Bloomberg, which is, you know, obviously I would never normally even think about

1:45.0

listening to the podcast, but this episode from last week had on one of my favorite people, Cliff Astor

1:50.8

and it's a great podcast. He talks a lot about back testing, about risk factors, about momentum,

1:57.0

so all the things that I know other people people who are listening, would be interested in.

2:01.5

So perhaps just for once, break the rule, turn away from TTIU, just listen to this one episode,

...

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