4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 7 June 2025
⏱️ 69 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing
03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading
11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020
21:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics
25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures
34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments
42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models
47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following
55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies
01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development
01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on Humanity
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0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
0:26.7 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Richard Brennan and I, Neil's Castleblaston, |
0:29.3 | where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
0:34.5 | Let me also say a warm welcome if today is the first time you're joining us. |
0:39.0 | And if someone who cares about you and your portfolio recommended that you tune into the podcast, |
0:43.6 | I would like to take a big thank you for sharing this episode with friends and colleagues. |
0:48.3 | It really does mean a lot to us. Rich, it is wonderful as ever to be back with you uh this week how things down under very good |
0:56.1 | news i'm looking at our live video feed which unfortunately our audience don't see and i'm seeing |
1:01.9 | you in a t-shirt and me and a jumper that's reflecting the uh it's getting a bit chilly down here |
1:07.4 | and it's obviously summer over there. Exactly, exactly. |
1:11.4 | Although so far here in Switzerland, it's been pretty wet summer. |
1:14.7 | So running around in T-shirts is not for everyday use, I will say. |
1:20.8 | We've got some really interesting, a little bit different than usual topics lined up, |
1:25.7 | you know, courtesy of you, of course, which I think people will |
1:28.9 | really enjoy. And, you know, of course, we also have our little segment, which might be a little |
1:35.0 | bit longer today, in terms of what's been on your radar. Now, my topic, actually, I'm going to be |
1:42.5 | very selfish here, because I know your topic will take us into a little bit longer discussion. |
1:46.8 | So I just want to give you two things that came across my radar and actually both of them this morning when I was just looking at the news. |
1:54.2 | And they're both stories from the Financial Times. |
1:58.2 | The first story I came across is kind of a reminder of how obsessed |
2:03.6 | the world has become in terms of measuring our own activities. You know, we measure how many |
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