SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 17 May 2025

⏱️ 75 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.

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Episode TimeStamps:

03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution

17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI

20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate

30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks

39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends

48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance

53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations

01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies

01:11:10 - Navigating Market Changes

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of
0:06.2	systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked
0:11.3	investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Andrew Beer and I, Niels Castro.
0:29.5	Lastin where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:34.7	Andrew, it is wonderful to be back with you, and I really look forward to our
0:39.3	conversation today. How are you doing? I'm doing okay, thank you. It is great to be back. I love
0:45.6	doing these. They always give you an opportunity to, you know, kind of sit back and reflect on where
0:50.6	things are and what we talked about last time and how the world has changed or hasn't
0:55.3	changed. So thank you so much for helping me back. No, absolutely. And you're right. I mean,
1:00.0	I think there is a lot of reflection that's taking place right now. There are a lot of things
1:04.5	happening in the world, but it's also having quite a major impact on the managed futures or CTA space. So I think it's a great time
1:13.1	to study it. It's usually during the difficult times that you learn something new or see things
1:18.8	in a different light. So I really, really look forward to our conversation today. Now, we had a
1:24.7	little bit of a conversation before I press record. So I'm kind of nowhere we're going with this, but I will ask you anyways, what's been on your mind lately?
1:32.8	Okay.
1:33.8	Well, it's on the personal run, so I might be completely, so we have a 15-year-old dog who is on his last days, and so we, I'm in the midst of a family-wide vigil.
1:49.0	And the world will be a much, much, much a darker place.
1:52.5	But those who know me, sort of a funny story,
1:55.8	he came to, in 2022, I spoke at an ETF conference, exchange ETFs, and I made a hoodie for him.
2:06.3	He's a golden retriever.
2:07.7	And I made a hoodie with him with the DBMF logo.
2:10.0	And I was speaking on the alternatives panel.
	...

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