SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 10 May 2025

⏱️ 68 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet.

As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflation that defies familiar playbooks, and a political regime shift few are pricing in. From Buffett’s exit to dollar fragility, elite endowments tapping the bond market, and oil diplomacy with geopolitical undertones—this is a conversation about change in motion.

But this episode doesn’t stop at markets. It’s about the narrative arc of societies under stress—about whether the West can summon the unity and courage to face its next great test.

Insightful, urgent, and layered - this is the episode you will look back on and say: the clues were all there.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:17 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:54 - Industry performance update

08:44 - Inflation is coming - what now?

16:43 - The Fed is stuck and the Trump administration is changing

26:07 - If US debt defaults, what is left?

29:32 - Are we experiencing the decline of the dollar?

40:19 - The OPEC game

43:21 - Reflecting on the conversation with Demetri Kofinas

48:33 - What is courage as a society?

50:49 - The West is being disunified...on purpose

53:22 - Do we actually know who or what the real enemy is?

58:58 - Cem's latest market forecast

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.2	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:33.5	Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Jim Cassang and I, Niels Castro Blasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:39.7	Jim, wonderful to be back with you. I was just going to about to say, how have you been?
0:43.7	But we actually spoke not very many days ago. So how are you?
0:51.4	Doing well. Doing well. Chicago in the spring. My son got into boarding school and he's getting ready.
0:54.4	So a moment of change and renewal. So things are good.
0:55.3	That's good to hear.
0:56.1	That's great to hear.
0:57.2	Well, we've got a, I always say this, we've got a great line of topics.
1:01.3	I think we do.
1:02.3	They may be a little bit different to what people hear us talk about.
1:05.3	I think this will be influenced by an episode that we will refer to a little later in our conversation that we just released a few
1:12.8	days ago, a very, very deep conversation with Demetri Kofenis.
1:17.3	But before we get into all of that stuff, I always love to hear kind of things that we're
1:23.4	not really going to dive into today, but just things that you may have come across your radar,
1:29.2	something that you think is interesting,
1:32.2	could be funny, you know, anything,
1:35.3	or is it just spinning with all the stuff you have going on right now?
1:38.4	There's so much going on.
1:39.5	It's like, I don't even know.
1:41.0	Let me throw a couple of things to you then,
	...

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