SI344: Trend Following during Trump Tariff Turmoil ft. Katy Kaminski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

News, Business News, Business, Investing

4.8 • 712 Ratings

🗓️ 19 April 2025

⏱️ 71 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:58 - Industry performance update

08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?

14:06 - Industry performance numbers

15:31 - Crisis or correction?

22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..

28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?

33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?

39:20 - It's all about the long game

41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting

50:18 - Should markets be treated differently in terms of speed?

52:18 - Advice for building strong trend following portfolios

57:37 - The role of correlation and volatility in trend following

01:07:45 - The search for crisis alpha continues

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.0	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:33.1	Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Katie Kaminsky and I, Niels Kastrow-Larsen, where each week we take the polls of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:38.4	Katie, it is great to be back with you this week. How are you doing? What's going on where you are?
0:42.9	You know, things are good. We're moving forward. It's mid-April.
0:44.9	That's, you know, here we go. That's something. You know, speaking of mid-April, I think it's fair to say that spring has arrived over here in Europe.
0:52.6	And usually I associate spring with something positive,
0:56.0	something optimistic after a long dark winter.
0:58.8	But as I'm sure we're going to be talking about today,
1:01.9	this spring feels a little bit different.
1:04.7	But we'll get to that, I guess.
1:07.6	Anyways, we've got a great line of talking talking points today focusing of course on current events
1:14.7	and also your latest paper on crisis and correction and we might call it the tft t t t which i
1:23.9	sort of came up with sort of as the trend following in a Trump tariff turmoil.
1:29.0	But we'll see if that hangs on social or not.
1:33.1	Anyways, we'll be tackling some of those issues today.
1:36.1	But before we do that, it's always fun for me to learn what's been on your radar outside all of these financial matters that we so often talk about?
1:48.0	Well, I mean, I'd say it's just been, it's been very wild. I think everybody I'm talking to,
1:53.8	you know, it's just hearing different perspectives from, you know, talking to friends of mine in
2:00.0	the regional banking industry to talking to friends of mine in the regional banking industry to talking to friends
2:02.5	of mine in academia, because I know here in Boston, there's, you know, we have Harvard, we have MIT,
2:08.7	so, you know, people are definitely sort of trying to navigate, like, what is going on here. And
	...

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