SI34: Can Central Banks and policies prevent trends in the future?

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 5 May 2019

⏱️ 93 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In today’s episode, we discuss how much central banks or political events, can prevent or create market trends in the future. We also discuss AQR Capital Management’s recent study on Trend Following performance in the current decade, and whether or not we have seen the end of large market trends. We wonder if technology prevents Commodities from having bull runs like Equities have had in the last decade, and we answer questions on scaling in and out of trades, where to get back-adjusted data, and if the US stock market will eventually stagnate like Japan’s in the 1990s. You can download your free guide to Systematic Investing, and subscribe to our mailing list by visiting TopTradersUnplugged.com Get a free copy of my latest book "The Many Flavors of Trend Following" here. Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels, Jerry, Moritz & Wayne on Twitter: @TopTradersLive, @RJparkerjr09, & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode Summary 0:00 - Intro 1:50 - Weekly review 8:45 - Top tweets 37:30 - Question 1: Todd; What are your thoughts on adjusting stops based on price changes/volatility? 45:50 - Question 2: Paul; Have you considered the strength of a trend in your models? 53:05 - Question 3: Brian; How do you scale position sizes up and down based on performance? 1:02:15 - Questions 4/5/6: Sanjay; Aside from central bank (CB) action are there other reasons for the lack of trends in the last decade? If CB action is to blame and continues, will a lack of trends persist? What are indicators to watch to measure overall market trendiness? 1:22:45 - Question 7: George; What are your thoughts on data (back adjusting, roll methods, cleaning, etc.)? 1:30:15 - Performance recap Subscribe on:

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest
0:07.2	journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent
0:12.3	yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series.
0:19.9	Jerry Parker, Moritz Sieber and I, Niels Karz Larsen, are back with this week's edition
0:23.9	of the Systematic Investor Series, where each week we focus on helping you build safer
0:29.1	and better performing portfolios by including trend following in the mix and where we do
0:33.8	our best to answer all of your questions.
0:36.8	So without further ado, good morning, Jerry,
0:38.8	and good afternoon, Moritz, how are you guys?
0:41.3	Great, how are you?
0:43.7	Very well, very well.
0:45.0	Actually, it's a funny thing, it's early May, 5th of May,
0:48.0	and we have complete snow cover this morning when I woke up,
0:52.0	which is a bit unusual.
0:53.5	Oh dear. Oh dear.
0:54.9	Oh dear.
1:00.8	Now, since last week's conversation with Wayne, which was absolutely great, I thought,
1:06.6	we have completed the month of April, which turned out to be pretty solid.
1:13.3	I think for most trend followers building on the gains from Q1, which was great for our clients,
1:19.7	of course. But the markets have seemed to completely forgotten about the troubles we had back in December. We see the VIX drop to pretty much record lows. We see the short positions in the Whig's hit new record highs. And of
1:30.9	course in the last 48 hours, we've heard from the US vice president that he's been calling
1:36.8	for the Fed to slash rates and go and let go of the mandate to keep prices low and stable.
	...

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