SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 5 October 2024
⏱️ 67 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:37 - Industry performance update
09:02 - Reflecting on August and September
12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade
17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?
21:32 - Finding the right trading speed
24:15 - Out-performing is a long game
27:47 - Its time to move direction
29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?
33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time
39:24 -...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.6 | Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Nick Baltas and I, Neil's Castro-Blaston, where each week we take the pulse of the global market |
| 0:30.7 | through the lens of a rules-based investor. Nick, it's great to be back with you. As always, |
| 0:35.6 | it's been a little while. Have you been? Yes, correct. |
| 0:37.9 | It's been a little while. |
| 0:38.9 | I'm very, very glad to be back. |
| 0:40.8 | I think last time was this in the first week of August. |
| 0:43.4 | Very well time just before my break. |
| 0:46.2 | No, I've been, you know, obviously I enjoyed the summer. |
| 0:49.7 | We will go back to Greece with family and then beginning of September, when schools start |
| 0:55.3 | again, here we are. |
| 0:57.6 | So kind of planning now for the year and a bit of travel, some good projects at work and managing |
| 1:04.7 | a four-month-old alongside with my six-year-old daughter is in itself. |
| 1:14.2 | I guess the new way of living in September. |
| 1:15.4 | Absolutely. |
| 1:18.2 | Yeah, my travel season started as well. |
| 1:23.5 | Unfortunately, it also started with me picking up some kind of buck on the way back on my latest trip. |
| 1:29.0 | So if I'm coughing a little bit along the way, we'll try to mute that as much as possible, |
| 1:37.8 | but be warned. We obviously have quite a few topics lined up thanks to you, and as always, |
| 1:43.6 | they're great, but as we also do every time we speak, I'm really interested in just sort of what you're picking up on your |
... |
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