SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 18 May 2024

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?

12:17 - Discussing the data

18:30 - Industry performance update

21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?

25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism

29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager

36:31 - The fallacy of consensus

40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower

43:14 - Is price truth?

47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?

54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following

57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing
0:09.0	and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:14.0	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series
0:27.9	with Mark Ressamsinski and I, Niels Castro-Larsen,
0:30.8	where each week we take the pulse of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:35.3	Mark, wonderful to be back with you this week. How are you doing?
0:38.6	Not too bad. Always good to talk with you. Yeah, likewise. Now, we've got a great lineup of topics
0:45.1	that you brought along, and we will be tackling them today. But as you know, a little tradition
0:51.3	before we get started. I'm always curious to kind of hear what's on your radar
0:55.4	since the last time we spoke a few weeks ago.
0:59.3	Well, I'm not going to steal the thunder from all of our topics,
1:02.1	but the one thing that actually caught my attention
1:05.0	was something called the false consensus effect,
1:09.2	and this is another one of these behavioral biases.
1:13.1	And this is a behavioral biases that you sort of say like, well, everyone, you know, that I talk to is thinking the same.
1:21.2	And then when I hear a different opinion, this is that I can't believe that someone would actually have a different opinion.
1:28.2	And that's especially with the polarization in politics, where if you sort of, if your
1:35.0	friends group are all a certain political view, then when you sort of say that you meet
1:40.1	someone who's outside that view, you sort of say like, I can't believe that.
1:43.9	How could that happen?
1:45.7	Now, we use that as the political example, but that also happens with our thinking about economic
1:51.4	events. This is that if you have all the same people reading the same research reports, talking with
	...

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