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Top Traders Unplugged

SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 4 May 2024

⏱️ 56 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?

06:53 - A recap of April

10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following

14:30 - The interesting commodities

18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?

20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022

22:51 - How commodity storage functions

29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence

32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works

35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation

42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?

47:06 - Manual or systematized?

48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities

53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?

54:16 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing

0:07.5

and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.0

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:27.0

Welcome and welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Harry Kristnan and I, Neil's Castlelarsen, where each week we take the polls of the global markets

0:31.2

through the lens of a rules-based investor.

0:34.1

Harry, it is wonderful to have you back on the show.

0:37.2

It's been a while since we last had you on.

0:39.4

How are you doing? I've missed you, Neels. Let me start with that. And I'm very happy to be back,

0:45.4

and I'm sure we'll have lots to discuss. Absolutely. Now, we are going to be talking about a

0:52.3

slightly different topic, I think, this week, courtesy of you.

0:57.3

And mainly because you've had a real deep dive into a different asset class compared to what most people will know you for, namely volatility.

1:07.7

But before we dive into all of that, what I always am curious about is kind of what you're keeping an eye on at the moment, nothing related to what we're going to be talking about today, but what you find interesting going on in the world, in the markets right now.

1:26.6

Somewhat surprisingly, I've been very interested in zero-data expiration options recently.

1:34.1

People used to contact me about them, because I'd written quite extensively about weekly

1:39.6

options in the second leg down book that I wrote in 2017.

1:44.9

But then I kind of lost interest because the prices of the stuff that I was buying for protection

1:51.6

seemed to be going up, at least in equity land.

1:55.8

And the good reasons for that, a lot of portfolio managers who trade volatility has an asset class, you know, who do

2:02.6

relative value trades and so on, have strict limits that they have to adhere to at the end of the day.

2:08.7

And these zero-day-to-expiration tools were great for blocking out risk. And what I started to see,

2:16.5

and I'm sure many others know this, is a strangely

2:20.4

shaped term structure of volatility where very short-dated protection was quite expensive.

...

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