SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 27 April 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?

03:11 - Industry performance update

05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?

12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro

18:09 - Important market development recently?

31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios

35:48 - The structure of markets

42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?

48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative

53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump

56:49 - Thanks for listening

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing
0:07.2	and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.2	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:27.3	Welcome up, welcome back to this week's edition of the systematic investor series with Jim Kazang and I, Neil's Castle Larsen, where each week we take the pulse of the global markets
0:31.4	through the lens of a rolls-based investor. Jim, it's great to be back with you this week.
0:36.5	Can't believe we're heading into May
0:37.8	in a few days. How are you doing? Is summer already with you? Doing well, spring in Chicago,
0:43.7	so everything's in bloom. It's good time to be here. Good stuff. Now, we've got some very
0:49.9	interesting topics and forecasts, actually, from your side that we're going to be tackling today.
0:56.3	We got a few questions that came in, which we appreciate.
1:00.4	But before we dive into all of that, besides what we're going to be talking about mainly,
1:06.1	what else kind of has been on your radar?
1:09.0	Anything interesting that you've noticed recently?
1:13.3	Yeah, I think, you know, this, you know, we just had GDP come out, again, weaker now than expected.
1:22.9	And then we have a hot, you know, hot CBI at the same time.
1:27.2	So it's that stagflationary environment that you and I have been talking about.
1:31.6	A lot of people have been kind of whistling by the graveyard on it,
1:35.4	but I think it's starting to be pretty clear that's the new time frame we're going into.
1:40.5	And I think markets haven't necessarily caught up with that.
1:43.7	So I think that's the bigger picture that I'd love to talk about. Okay. Yeah, we't necessarily caught up with that. So I think that's the bigger
1:44.4	picture that I'd love to talk about. Okay. Yeah, we're definitely going to do that. It's interesting,
1:48.2	though, as you were mentioning that, and of course you and I have been talking about for a while
	...

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