SI29: Can Value Investing be applied to Gold? and Trend Following as a forecasting tool ft. Jesse Felder
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 30 March 2019
⏱️ 77 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this episode, we’re joined by special guest, Jesse Felder, from The Felder Report & the SuperInvestor Podcast. Jesse describes his journey into the markets, if he uses Trend Following strategies in his portfolio, why he thinks we’re in a Bear Market, and in the middle of a major ‘topping process’, what he thinks about Passive Investing, his go-to timing tools, and if Value Investing can be applied to non-equity markets such as Gold. We also ask Jesse: does he use the VIX index for hedging? What is a normal day is like for him? Jesse tells us why he considers Trend Following a good forecasting tool, gives us his thoughts on predicting versus reacting to price moves, and also lets us know what he’s currently reading.
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Weekly review of performance
05:20 – Jesse reviews his background/influences
08:00 – Jesse describes his process
12:45 – Question from Francois: Would Jesse discuss his view we’re in/entering a bear market?
19:30 – Jerry asks Jesse’s opinion on passive indexing
25:40 – Niels asks how float reduction impacts passive investing
28:00 – Jerry asks if ZIRP impacts valuation-based investing
30:10 – Niels asks Jesse how a transition to an inflationary environment will impact investing
34:40 – Moritz asks if/how Jesse applies the value approach to all asset classes
36:50 – Moritz asks if Jesse trades the VIX or otherwise hedges tails
Book reference: The Tao of Capital by...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:15.1 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:19.5 | Jerry Parker, Moritz Siebert and I, Niels Kostaflarsen, are back with this week's edition of the |
| 0:24.0 | Systematic Investor Series, which is our weekly ongoing raw exploration of the world |
| 0:29.1 | of rule-based investing, and of course, where we also take some of your questions. |
| 0:34.0 | But today we're going to deviate a bit from our usual format because we are |
| 0:38.2 | delighted to be joined by a very special guest namely the one and only jessie felder whom i'm |
| 0:43.6 | sure many of you already know from his excellent podcast and block so let me start by saying welcome |
| 0:50.4 | to the show jesse great to have you and as usual great to have you jerry in the morning |
| 0:56.4 | and morrit in the afternoon good morning good afternoon now um i think it's fair to uh to say that this |
| 1:04.6 | week was focused on on brexit and the many votes that took place in the UK Parliament. |
| 1:15.8 | And as we know today, the many times they managed to say no. |
| 1:21.2 | But of course this week was also the last week of March and therefore end of Q1. |
| 1:31.1 | So a good time to take stock of how trend-based strategies did in a quarter where US stock sold 13% and also where bonds did really well. So for a strategy that is often referred to as a crisis alpha strategy, you know, |
| 1:38.5 | it'll be interesting to see how we code with a quarter that, you know, didn't really possess |
| 1:43.1 | any crisis. |
| 1:46.5 | So with that in mind, Moritz, should we do the usual? Get to you first and see how it all panned out? |
| 1:50.5 | Sure, let's do the usual. |
| 1:52.8 | So year to date, because it's the end of the quarter, year to date, |
| 1:56.1 | and therefore quarter to date is minus 5%. |
| 1:58.8 | But I had a very good month, 10% up and a very good past week, |
| 2:03.7 | 5% up. And, you know, I can really keep that very short. It's been long the dollar, |
... |
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