SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 670 Ratings
🗓️ 6 January 2024
⏱️ 66 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?
03:02 - Industry performance update
06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?
11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?
16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?
24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation
27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?
32:19 - Under the hood of inflation
34:23 - What is normal?
39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world
46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?
49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective
53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball
59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David...
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing |
| 0:07.2 | and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:34.0 | Welcome, well, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Jim Kassang and I, Niels Kastroblassen, where each week we take the polls of the global market through the lens of a rules-based investor. |
| 0:39.3 | Jim, great to be back with you this week to kick off the new year. How are you doing? |
| 0:46.6 | How was your festive season? Good. Happy New Year. Yeah, 2024. You know, another trip around the sun. |
| 0:57.4 | Yeah, it was obviously a very eventful year for myself, for markets. you know, good time to sit and reflect and think towards the future, obviously, and did a lot of that, got a lot of downtime with family |
| 1:05.3 | and, you know, excited to start the new year. Yeah, and actually that's kind of what we're going to be doing today, |
| 1:11.9 | maybe a little bit of a different episode than normally, because it is the beginning of a new year. |
| 1:16.4 | It is the first episode of the systematic investor in 2024. So both you and I felt they would be a good |
| 1:22.7 | idea just to discuss a little bit about what we expect from the year ahead. |
| 1:30.8 | Before we dive into all of that exciting stuff and the topics that you brought along very kindly, |
| 1:37.5 | since we last spoke, which is like a month ago when we had the group conversations, |
| 1:42.1 | is there anything other than what we're going to be talking |
| 1:45.5 | about in a few minutes? That's kind of been on your radar, anything that you've noticed that you thought? |
| 1:51.1 | Well, I think, I think, you know, the two big things are one, kind of the Fed, you know, I wouldn't call it pivot or, you know, after today's data, we'll |
| 2:03.9 | see that kind of the mission accomplished banner, right? And what that really means. And I think |
| 2:11.2 | that's an interesting thing to get to. You know, I think it's the big question on markets had, |
| 2:16.6 | is this transitory 3.0 or is this actually a turn? |
| 2:20.5 | And then the other big one would be geopolitical, you know, what's happening in the Middle East and the Red Sea and how it continues to move along. |
| 2:27.7 | I think we'll get to both of those as the show goes on. |
| 2:30.0 | But I think those are the two biggest developments. |
... |
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