SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8 • 670 Ratings

🗓️ 5 August 2023

⏱️ 71 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?

03:54 - The big macro picture

12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming

17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?

21:13 - A fear of Japanification

26:28 - Industry performance update

28:39 - A period of dispersion

33:36 - Calculating the return expectations

41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following

47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments

55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook

01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification

01:08:34 - Thanks for listening

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Transcript

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0:00.0	You're about to join Nealz Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing
0:07.2	and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.
0:13.2	Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.
0:26.4	Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Alan Don and I, Neil's Castleblassen, where each week we take the pulse of the global
0:30.5	market through the lens of a rules-based investor.
0:33.8	Alan, wonderful to be back with you this week, a week that turned out a little bit different
0:38.9	than most people expected when it comes to credit ratings and Apple earnings.
0:44.1	How are you doing?
0:45.3	I'm good, yeah.
0:46.1	It's pretty miserable here in Dublin, actually.
0:48.7	We've had the wettest July on record, and it's definitely carried into August.
0:53.3	So from a summer perspective, it's a pretty
0:57.9	stop start. But as you say, a very interesting week in markets and a big shift in sentiment,
1:02.1	as you say, as we've gone through the week. Yeah, we'll dive into that in a second. Yeah, I concur with
1:08.7	the wet sentiment for July, looking at the weather up here in northern
1:14.4	part of Europe where I am at the moment, it has also been the wettest July on record, which is
1:19.9	very interesting because that's obviously not what people have experienced in the southern part of
1:24.3	Europe. So maybe the northern part will be the new south, so to speak.
1:30.2	All right, well, as we normally do before we dive into your sort of global macro picture,
1:36.3	which we will in a second, I was just wondering, I mean, we've got a lot of good topics lined up,
1:41.2	but just more generally speaking, is there anything other than maybe
1:45.7	the global Microsoft we're going to talk about that kind of has caught your radar since we last
	...

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