SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 24 June 2023
⏱️ 65 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What happened this week?
03:48 - Industry performance update
05:21 - Article on momentum gap
16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right
23:25 - What did not happen this year?
32:02 - AI and trend following
35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning
42:59 - Failure of models
52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models
56:28 - Being macro aware
01:00:35 - Thanks for listening
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy. |
| 0:13.2 | Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series. |
| 0:26.5 | Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Mark Rissomsinski and I, Neil's Castro Blasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global |
| 0:31.2 | market through the lens of a rules-based investor. Mark, wonderful to be back with you this week. |
| 0:36.5 | How are things? How are you doing? Very good. It's beginning of summer. This is officially the first weekend of summer, albeit in the U.S. usually start on Memorial Day and go to Labor Day, but from an astrological basis, this is the first weekend of summer. I have to say, you know, here in Switzerland, it's been feeling like summer for a while. |
| 0:57.9 | It's been very warm and humid, but I'm sure that's been the same on your side. |
| 1:04.0 | Now, Mark, we're going to have some, we have a great number of topics that we're going to talk about, as usual, a long list that we need to tackle. |
| 1:12.5 | But before we do that, I'm always curious what's been on your radar since we last spoke a few |
| 1:18.4 | weeks ago. |
| 1:19.9 | Well, the main thing we're going to talk about is, well, in the main topic, is I could go on |
| 1:25.9 | and on, is just what has been happening in the first half of the year |
| 1:29.8 | or what hasn't happened or what we expected to happen that didn't happen. |
| 1:35.2 | And that's probably what's on my mind right now is that all of the crisis issues that I thought |
| 1:40.6 | were going to be important at the beginning of the year haven't turned out that way. |
| 1:44.8 | Fair enough. That's a good little teaser to what we're going to talk about. |
| 1:48.6 | In terms of, I'm not sure whether this is something we expected to happen or not, |
| 1:52.1 | but I will just say that as I was preparing our topics today this morning on Saturday morning, |
| 1:58.2 | there are, of course, many, many breaking news everywhere about a possible |
| 2:03.6 | coup d'etat in Russia. |
| 2:05.7 | Who knows what the real situation is? |
| 2:09.2 | But, of course, if that is the case, then there will be some interesting market action, |
| 2:14.0 | no doubt, Monday morning. |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Niels Kaastrup-Larsen, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.