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Top Traders Unplugged

SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 6 May 2023

⏱️ 68 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfoliohere.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?

10:59 - Industry performance update

14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?

19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour

25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness

30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets

34:31 - It takes two to crisis

39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?

41:56 - Is price all we need?

50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?

56:39 - Words of estimative probability

01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is

01:02:58 - Skew in trend following

01:05:38 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic

0:06.6

investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.2

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:33.3

Welcome, welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor series with Mark Resemsonski and I, Neil's Castrolassen, where each week we take the pulse of the global markets through the lens of a rules-based investor.

0:46.0

Now, for those of you who are regular listeners, this podcast series is all about voicing our differences on the one topic that brings us together, namely systematic investing using the often overlooked and very robust strategy of trend following.

0:54.6

We hope that today's episode will trigger your curiosity to learn more by diving into the back catalog and listen to all of the past episodes that you may have missed,

0:59.6

like last week's episode with Alan, where we unpacked ways to use trend following as part of a risk mitigation subset of a portfolio, as well as how you can approach building an

1:04.6

alternative investment portfolio, and much more. Also, I would encourage you to listen to

1:09.6

our Wednesday episode where this week I caught

1:12.5

up with two of the most popular global macro thinkers, namely macro alf and our own Jim Kazan,

1:17.7

where they had a solid discussion about how they see the current state of affairs somewhat differently,

1:24.0

I might add, when it comes to the future path of inflation and interest rates,

1:27.8

but they also found a few places of agreement.

1:30.8

So head over and check it out after you are done listening to Mark and me today.

1:35.8

Mark, it's great to be back with you after another week where more Fed action and important

1:40.2

economic data has been released.

1:42.4

But before we dive into all of this, how are you doing, how things were you are?

1:45.9

Good.

1:46.4

Always good to talk to you.

1:47.4

It's been about six weeks since the last time we were on together.

1:51.5

And something always happens in between, Mark, but there we are.

1:55.1

Now, Mark, I have to ask you a personal question, and that is, are you familiar with the TV series called Ted Lasso?

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