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Top Traders Unplugged

SI194: Trend Following & Manager Selection ft. Alan Dunne

Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

Business, Business News, Investing, News

4.8670 Ratings

🗓️ 29 May 2022

⏱️ 72 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss manager selection and how to overcome behavioural biases, based on his paper, “Solving the Manager Selection Puzzle”, narratives and dealing with randomness in Trend Following, the end of the 60/40 portfolio and moving from public to private equity, trend following performance and quantitative investment strategies, trend following in an ever changing world and the expectation of going back to “normal”, the challenges of globalization and demographics and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

02:14 - Summary of the week

11:47 - The Challenges of Manager selection

18:22 - The Influeence of Randomness

25:57 - Alan's own Vulnerability

28:16 - The 5 Step Solution

30:03 - When the honest answer is what investors want to hear

46:42 - The evolution of the 60/40 portfolio - Barrons article

55:51 - Trend following in the Press

01:02:53 - Will we ever go back to "normal"

01:06:11 - The Great Demographic Twist

01:09:00 - Performance Update

Resources discussed in this Episode:


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Transcript

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0:00.0

You're about to join Neil's Kostrup Larson on a raw and honest journey into the world of systematic investing

0:07.0

and learn about the most dependable and consistent yet often overlooked investment strategy.

0:13.0

Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series.

0:27.0

Welcome or welcome back to this week's edition of the Systematic Investor Series with Alan Don and I, Neil's Castor Blasen, where each week we take the pulse of the global

0:31.1

markets through the lens of a rules-based investor. If you're new to the show, I hope today's

0:36.5

episode will trigger your curiosity

0:37.9

enough to check out the back catalog and listen to the past episodes that you may have missed,

0:42.5

like last week's episode with Jerry Parker, where we talked about finding the optimal way of

0:47.2

doing trend following, and even discussed how to react to a drastic fall in a market,

0:52.0

like what we saw in Luna just a couple of weeks ago.

0:55.9

Also, I would like to encourage you to listen to the Meet Week global macro episode,

1:00.3

where Jim and I had Joseph Wang, who's also known as the Fed guy on Twitter,

1:04.9

take us inside the Federal Reserve as he was sitting on the open markets desk for five years. And we discussed the challenges

1:13.3

that central banks face at the moment in the current environment. Very interesting insights indeed.

1:20.6

Now, as you may know, the aim of the podcast is to inspire you to be the best investor that you can

1:25.8

be. We want to be prerogative from time to time, but without that you can be. We want to be provocative from time to time,

1:29.3

but without being polarizing and we want to challenge consensus narratives and to advocate

1:34.3

how to think critically about investing in a uncertain world. And we want to provide you with a

1:40.1

framework and a mindset that we believe is truly robust.

1:45.1

Alan, it is always a great pleasure and a lot of fun to be with you.

1:50.1

So welcome back and how are things where you are today.

1:54.4

Thanks, Neil.

...

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