SI16: What Returns and Drawdowns can you expect from Trend Following
Top Traders Unplugged
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
4.8 • 712 Ratings
🗓️ 29 December 2018
⏱️ 73 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Welcome to The Systematic Investor series. It’s a great privilege for me to invite you to a behind the scenes conversation between some of my favorite systematic investors namely Jerry Parker and Moritz Seibert. We get on a “call” each week to discuss the events that took place through the lens of a Systematic Investor and how the trading strategies we work with are reacting. It’s a raw and honest exploration and we hope you will join and be part of…not least by sending us questions that we can discuss.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 – Intro
01:55 – Weekly review of performance
13:00 – Top tweets
35:30 – Question 1: George; Is there a best system to trade trends?
49:20 – Question 2: George; Why have discretionary macro traders outperformed TF?
55:25 – Question 3/4: George; What is a safe expectation for systems in terms of CAGR to Drawdown? Do you think a “golden” period for TF like the 1970s will come back?
01:04:00 – Question 5: Liew: What price should my trailing stop reference (high, low, close, etc.)?
01:08:00 – Benchmark performance update
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | You're about to join Jerry Parker, Maritz Siebert, and Nealz Kastrup Larson on their raw and honest |
| 0:07.3 | journey into the world of systematic investing and learn about the most dependable and consistent |
| 0:12.3 | yet often overlooked investment strategy. Welcome to the Systematic Investor podcast series. |
| 0:19.7 | Jerry Parker, Moritz Siebert, and I, Niels Kasperlarsen, are delighted to be back with the last |
| 0:25.7 | edition of this year of the Systematic Investor Series, which is our weekly open-ended |
| 0:30.8 | and pretty raw exploration of the world of rule-based investing and where we also take |
| 0:35.4 | some of your questions. |
| 0:39.3 | So good morning, Jerry, and good afternoon to you, Moritz. Hello, Niels. How are you? Good morning. I, good morning. Yeah, good morning, |
| 0:43.8 | Jerry. I'm well, Moritz, and of course, we missed you last week. You were out on the slopes. |
| 0:49.3 | I hope you had some good skiing conditions. Yes, had a great time. I really like skiing, good snow, sunny weather, so it's been a great break. |
| 1:00.0 | It always feels good to be a bit away from the markets and the daily action and then come back with a fresher mind. |
| 1:08.0 | Absolutely, absolutely. |
| 1:10.0 | And so while most of us were enjoying all the festive season, U.S. stock markets joined, |
| 1:16.2 | at least for a short period of time, many of the other stock markets already in a bear market, |
| 1:21.1 | but it seems like only a few phone calls from the U.S. Treasury brought out the sort of the plunge protection team this week. |
| 1:29.1 | And that certainly led to some fireworks being lit after the Christmas holiday. |
| 1:35.7 | So quite a week to sort of finish the year on. |
| 1:41.2 | And yeah, it would be interesting to that in all of that impacted sort of the |
| 1:47.1 | trend following space that we belong to and so uh why don't we just jump into it and find out |
| 1:53.9 | what how it all played out more it's uh if now that you are back if i can go back to our usual |
| 1:59.9 | tradition to start off with you and |
| 2:02.8 | see what the week was like through your rule-based eye, so to speak. |
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