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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Should investors worry about market concentration?

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 3 December 2024

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for an outsized share of the index’s market cap and of its stellar 2024 performance. Goldman Sachs Research’s David Kostin, chief US equity strategist, and Owen Lamont, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management LLC, discuss whether investor concerns over today’s high US equity market concentration are warranted. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Market Concentration: How Big a Worry?

Transcript

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0:00.0

A small number of stocks are driving most of the outsized gains in U.S. equities this year.

0:06.1

So is that a problem for investors?

0:08.5

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs exchanges.

0:11.6

Each month, I speak with investors, policymakers, and academics about the most pressing market-moving

0:17.2

issues for our top of my report from Goldman Sachs research.

0:21.2

This month, I spoke to two prominent market watchers who are an opposite size of this very

0:26.3

relevant debate. David Koston, our chief U.S. equity strategist in Goldman-S.

0:30.6

research, believes that investors should be concerned about the high level of U.S. equity

0:35.4

market concentration today. That's because he finds that high

0:39.1

concentration is associated with lower returns over the longer run. But Owen Lamont,

0:44.5

senior vice president and portfolio manager at Acadian Asset Management, disagrees. He says that

0:50.1

current concerns about high U.S. market concentration are overblown. I started off by asking my colleague David Koston just how unusual the level of market

0:58.6

concentration is today. He discussed two measures he uses to determine this. The share of total

1:04.1

S&P 500 market cap accounted for by the top 10 stocks and the market cap of the largest stock

1:10.0

relative to the 75th percentile stock.

1:12.6

One measure that's easy for people to comprehend, understand, track, follow, what have you,

1:19.7

is the weight of the S&P 500 market cap that is contributed by the top 10 stocks. We have data going back 45 years, and we

1:30.2

have data on daily basis. You can actually look at it very specifically. And the specific number is

1:35.0

those top 10 companies today comprise around 36% of the market cap. And to go back over time,

1:42.4

it's around 20% at the peak of the dot com boom in 2000. It was about

1:48.1

25%. And then we use another approach or time series that brought the data back 100 years.

1:54.8

Today, 36% of the market cap is the top 10 stocks. Using another metric, we are at a level that we've

...

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