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Hello and welcome to a special Saturday edition of Coffee House Shots. I'm Isabel Hardman

and I'm joined by Katie Balls and the new

statesman's Stephen Bush. Well, the North Shropshire by-election to replace Conservative MP

Owen Patterson takes place this coming week. Katie, how are things looking in what has been a safe

conservative seat with a big majority?

Up Hill, I think it's a kind way of looking at it for the Tory party.

I think that if we go back in time a few weeks to the initial Boris Johnson debacle of the past month,

it was the Owen Patterson Sle sleeves route after the Standards Commissioner suggested that

Owen Patterson needed to be suspended for a breach of lobbying rules downing street and

Patterson decided they didn't want to do that there was an attempt to spare from this it

backfired spectacularly Owen Patterson chose to quit the Commons and they did not reform the

commissioner in any way.

And therefore we have a situation where there was a by-election in North Shropshire.

Now that by-election when it was initially announced, I think, saw quite a few people,

and I think myself included, point out this is a safe seat.

This is over 20,000 majority in 2019.

And ultimately suggesting that Patterson should have perhaps just taken that suspension because even if there was a recall petition which is something they were worried about

and then there was a vote in that seat it looked pretty easy to hold but since then I think there's a

...