Secular Inflation & the End of the Great Moderation | Nick Timiraos

Hidden Forces

Demetri Kofinas

Government, Business

4.8 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 12 September 2022

⏱️ 51 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

In Episode 271 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nick Timiraos, the chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, where he covers the Federal Reserve and U.S. economic policy. Timiraos is also the author of Trillion Dollar Triage, a detailed account of the day-by-day and sometimes hour-by-hour policymaking by Federal Reserve officials during the heights of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequently between 2020-2021.

The first part of this conversation focuses on the immediate concerns that investors have about Fed policy and the path of interest rates. This includes a discussion about inflation targeting and inflation expectations, personnel and the centralization of policymaking at the Fed, and tradeoffs between economic growth, financial stability, and inflation.

In the second hour, Demetri and Nick discuss quantitative tightening, balance sheet capacity, and how this Fed would react to inadvertently “breaking something” in the plumbing of the financial system. They also discuss fiscal and monetary collaboration, the ability or inability to get inflation under control long-term without stabilizing government debt, the Fed put, the stock market, and much, much more.

Demetri’s goal in this conversation was to ask as many questions and learn as much as possible about how this Fed sees the challenges that lie before it, what data and information are most relevant to Fed officials when deciding how to set policy, how they think about tradeoffs, and how Jay Powell specifically, understands or thinks he understands the financial system and his role as Chairman of the most powerful central bank in the world. There are few people as qualified to answer these questions as Nick Timiraos and this conversation does not disappoint.

You can access the full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation by going directly to the episode page at HiddenForces.io and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

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Episode Recorded on 09/07/2022

Transcript

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0:00.0	What's up everybody? My name is Demetra Gafinas and you're listening to Hidden Forces,
0:06.0	a podcast that inspires investors, entrepreneurs and everyday citizens, the challenge consensus narratives,
0:14.0	and to learn how to think critically about the systems of power shaping our world.
0:19.0	My guest in this episode is Nick Timmy-Rails, the Chief Economics Correspondent for the Wall Street Journal,
0:25.0	where he covers the Federal Reserve and U.S. Economic Policy.
0:29.0	He is also the author of Trillion Dollar Triage, an extremely detailed account of in some cases
0:35.0	the day-to-day hour-by-hour policy making by Federal Reserve officials in the initial days of the COVID-19 pandemic
0:43.0	and subsequently between 2020 and 2021.
0:48.0	The first part of this conversation focuses on the immediate concerns that investors have about Fed policy
0:54.0	and the path of interest rates including a discussion about inflation targeting and inflation expectations,
1:01.0	personnel and the centralization of policy making at the Fed and trade-offs between economic growth,
1:07.0	financial stability and inflation.
1:10.0	The second hour is where we get much deeper into a conversation about quantitative tightening,
1:16.0	balance sheet capacity, and how this Fed would react to inadvertently breaking something
1:21.0	in the plumbing of the financial system.
1:24.0	We also discuss fiscal and monetary collaboration, the ability or inability to get inflation under control long term
1:30.0	without stabilizing government debt, the Fed put stock market and much, much more.
1:36.0	My goal in this conversation was to ask as many questions and learn as much as possible
1:42.0	about how this Fed sees the challenges that lie before it.
1:46.0	What data and information are most relevant to Fed officials when deciding how to set policy,
1:51.0	how they think about trade-offs, and how Jay Powell specifically understands or thinks he understands
1:58.0	the financial system and his role as chairman of the most powerful central bank in the world.
	...

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