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The Ezra Klein Show

Sam Altman on the A.I. Revolution, Trillionaires and the Future of Political Power

The Ezra Klein Show

New York Times Opinion

Society & Culture, Government, News

4.611K Ratings

🗓️ 11 June 2021

⏱️ 71 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

“The technological progress we make in the next 100 years will be far larger than all we’ve made since we first controlled fire and invented the wheel,” writes Sam Altman in his essay “Moore’s Law for Everything.” “This revolution will generate enough wealth for everyone to have what they need, if we as a society manage it responsibly.” Altman is the C.E.O. of OpenAI, one of the biggest, most important players in the artificial intelligence space. His argument is this: Since the 1970s, computers have gotten exponentially better even as they’re gotten cheaper, a phenomenon known as Moore’s Law. Altman believes that A.I. could get us closer to Moore’s Law for everything: it could make everything better even as it makes it cheaper. Housing, health care, education, you name it. But what struck me about his essay is that last clause: “if we as a society manage it responsibly.” Because, as Altman also admits, if he is right then A.I. will generate phenomenal wealth largely by destroying countless jobs — that’s a big part of how everything gets cheaper — and shifting huge amounts of wealth from labor to capital. And whether that world becomes a post-scarcity utopia or a feudal dystopia hinges on how wealth, power and dignity are then distributed — it hinges, in other words, on politics. This is a conversation, then, about the political economy of the next technological age. Some of it is speculative, of course, but some of it isn’t. That shift of power and wealth is already underway. Altman is proposing an answer: a move toward taxing land and wealth, and distributing it to all. We talk about that idea, but also the political economy behind it: Are the people gaining all this power and wealth really going to offer themselves up for more taxation? Or will they fight it tooth-and-nail? We also discuss who is funding the A.I. revolution, the business models these systems will use (and the dangers of those business models), how A.I. would change the geopolitical balance of power, whether we should allow trillionaires, why the political debate over A.I. is stuck, why a pro-technology progressivism would also need to be committed to a radical politics of equality, what global governance of A.I. could look like, whether I’m just “energy flowing through a neural network,” and much more. References: “Moore’s Law for Everything” by Sam Altman Recommendations: Crystal Nights by Greg Egan The Last Question by Isaac Asimov The Gentle Seduction by Marc Stiegler “Meditations on Moloch” by Scott Alexander If you enjoyed this episode, check out our previous conversation “Is A.I. the Problem? Or Are We?” You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of "The Ezra Klein Show" at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected]. “The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld, audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin.

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm Ezra Klein and this is the Ezra Klein Show.

0:20.2

So a few months ago I came across this really fascinating essay by Sam Altman called

0:24.2

Moore's Law for everything. Altman is the CEO of OpenAI which is one of the biggest

0:30.0

and most interesting of the companies trying to create general purpose artificial intelligence.

0:35.2

So an AI that can improve itself and learn and actually do all sorts of things in the

0:39.5

economy and in the world. I've met him a few times and he is a believer. He sees a world

0:44.9

coming. He believes he is bringing a world into existence. It is really, really different

0:49.6

than the one you and I know and that it's going to happen fast. And who knows? Maybe he's

0:53.6

right. But what caught my eye about this essay Moore's Law for everything is Altman's

0:58.8

effort to try and imagine the political consequences of true artificial intelligence and the policies

1:04.8

that could decide whether it usher in utopia or dystopia. So Moore's Law is the observation

1:10.4

the number of transistors on microchips doubles every two years or to put it more simply

1:15.0

that computer power has been growing exponentially for decades now. But prices have actually

1:19.3

been falling. That's not in the case for housing or health care or higher education. But

1:25.5

what if it was Altman's argument is a true AI could get us closer to Moore's Law for

1:29.9

everything. It can make everything better even as it makes everything cheaper. And I have

1:34.4

some points of skepticism here. You're going to hear them in the conversation. But maybe

1:38.2

he's right. I hope he's right. That would be good. But if you grant his argument if

1:44.3

he is right, then he says the world looks like this AI will create phenomenal wealth. But

1:49.6

it'll do so by driving the price of a lot of labor to basically zero. That is how everything

1:55.5

gets cheaper. It's also how a lot of people lose our jobs to make that world a good world

2:00.6

for people to make that a utopia rather than a dystopia. It requires really radical policy

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