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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep966: (4) Steve Yates argues the "Thucydides trap" is a manufactured academic concept used by Beijing to suggest inevitable US decline. He emphasizes that the US is not a classical empire and remains globally influential. China uses this rhetoric for political

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 4 June 2026

⏱️ 6 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

(4) Steve Yates argues the "Thucydides trap" is a manufactured academic concept used by Beijing to suggest inevitable US decline. He emphasizes that the US is not a classical empire and remains globally influential. China uses this rhetoric for political warfare while remaining sensitive to American strength.
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Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Bachelor with Gordon Chang at Gordon G. Chang and our colleague Steve Yates, the Heritage Foundation,

0:22.5

and put on your classical hat, gentlemen. We're going to the land of classics professors.

0:29.2

Recently had a wonderful conversation with a young classics professor University of Birmingham,

0:34.3

Andrew Bayliss, who has a new book out about Sparta, the history of

0:37.6

Sparta from a thousand B.C.E. till the fall of Spartan power in the 4th century BC, defeated by

0:46.3

Thebes. And the Thucydides trap comes up in common parlance now, in geopolitical circles.

0:53.0

It's considered extremely educated at the Council on

0:56.1

Foreign Relations to debate the matter. Strikingly, in the last meeting between the president

1:01.6

of the United States and the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, Ms. Xi Jinping, it was mentioned.

1:08.4

She went out of his way to say, I don't believe it, and Mr. Trump agreed

1:11.7

with him. I don't believe it either. Well, it's going to surprise everybody to hear. It turns

1:16.4

out the classics professor agree with the presidents. There is no Thucydides trap. It is an invention

1:22.9

of a very clever man, a scholar, who took lucid's and turned him sideways with presumptions of the

1:30.5

language. Here's the Thucydides trap as presented in geopolitical circles these last years.

1:37.0

A rising power will always tangle with the superpower, always, and it's inevitable. inevitable that is the way you replace the superpower that

1:48.0

ages and weakens and becomes corrupt the lucidity's trap is said to be in place for 2,500 years this is

1:57.2

5th century 4th century bc e century BCE, Athens and Sparta.

2:02.7

Sparta was considered the superpower, and Athens was the rising power.

2:07.8

Now, importantly, none of the details match up to this.

2:10.7

I'm just giving you a broad sweep.

2:13.3

It turns out, according to the classics professors, and there's unanimity among them,

2:19.1

that the reason Athens and Sparta went to war was nothing to do with rising power.

...

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