S8 Ep809: 6. Headline: Japan's Strategic Awakening and Regional Threats from China and Russia Guest: Lance Gatling Summary: The war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered Japanese strategic thinking, particularly regarding its northern borders with Russia. Japan is a
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
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🗓️ 1 May 2026
⏱️ 6 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | I'm John Metz with Lance Gatling of Nexiel Research. He's in Tokyo. |
| 0:22.4 | And looking at diplomacy, |
| 0:29.7 | the new Prime Minister, Takichi Sinai, is very busy. She's continuing diplomatic efforts, |
| 0:35.6 | wrote his reports, to ensure the passage of oil. What does that mean? She's spoken with the president of Iran, Massoud Pasekian, whom we have reason to believe is a diplomat first and a decider second. |
| 0:43.7 | He is not one of the five men who were IRGC affiliated who are making the command decisions about open or close the straits of our moves. |
| 0:53.4 | We come now, however, to not just the diplomacy |
| 0:57.7 | of Japan, but under Takichas and I. Either you say it's a re-arming, a reawakening, a new hawkish stance |
| 1:06.2 | towards the threats from the People's Republic of China. Lance, we talk about this routinely as the crisis in the Middle East changed any of the |
| 1:15.2 | thinking about facing up to China. |
| 1:18.3 | You're all vulnerable out there in the East Asia for the Straits of Hormuz. |
| 1:22.7 | Does it make China more or less dangerous from the Tokyo point of view? |
| 1:27.5 | What changed the Japanese way of thinking recently was more Ukraine than it has been Iran |
| 1:35.8 | and the blockade of the Straits of Hormon. |
| 1:39.8 | Certainly that got their attention, but remember that the Japanese don't share such a boundary, |
| 1:49.4 | such a large boundary with the People's Republic of China, but they do share a substantial border with Russia in the northern territories, |
| 1:59.6 | where the Russians occupy what the Japanese still claim |
| 2:03.8 | is their territory. |
| 2:05.6 | And these are not insignificant island. |
| 2:09.5 | These are the main island is larger, four times the size of Okinawa. |
| 2:14.4 | And Okinawa is certainly important. |
| 2:17.0 | And the northern territories have lots of resources and fisheries. |
| 2:21.3 | So they have eyed that with a lot of alarm, the activities of the Russians, the aggression against Ukraine. |
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