This is John Batchel, conversation with John Hardy of the FD about the Iran War and what it is doing to Ukraine's prospects for negotiating with Moscow, for providing air defense for its cities, for general understanding of support now and after the fighting stops from the European Union.

It is very heavy to report that not one of those things is a positive, as long as the Iran

war less and perhaps after that.

Here's John to explain.

Much more of this tonight.

John Hardy, FD.

So what Treasury has done,

at first, it waived for one month

sanctions on Russian oil for India

that was already loaded on tankers.

Then Treasury broadened that waiver

to include all buyers of Russian oil.

Again, only the oil that's loaded on Russian

tankers. So for that purpose,

basically all sanctions are waived. So if there's, say, a designated vessel that has some

Russian oil that was loaded after that date, you can transact, you can deal with that vessel,

you can deal with the owners of it, owners of the

oil, et cetera. I think what Treasury may do is broaden that exemption, again, which is temporary,

to include all original oil. So in that case, basically all bets will be off, all restrictions

would be dropped for whatever period the waiver lasts.

And so far it's been a month long.

But if the war continues long past that date or if the straight, if oil going through the straight is still impossible after, say, April 12 or so, I believe that the waivers are supposed

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