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The John Batchelor Show

S8 Ep384: Kevin Frazier analyzes how AI can fail like Western Union, warning that excessive concentration and lack of innovation could doom today's artificial intelligence giants just as the telegraph company declined.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 29 January 2026

⏱️ 12 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Kevin Frazier analyzes how AI can fail like Western Union, warning that excessive concentration and lack of innovation could doom today's artificial intelligence giants just as the telegraph company declined.
1955

Transcript

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0:00.0

I'm John Batchler. I welcome my colleague Kevin Fraser. He directs the AI Innovation and Law program at the University of Texas School of Law. This is AI, of course. He's a senior fellow at the Abundance Institute and an adjunct research fellow at the Cato Institute writing in Civitas Outlook about something that's right in front of us. That is, AI turning into one, competitive, wide open, and risk-taking. Two,

0:44.3

Western Union. Kevin, a very good evening to you. Your presentation is vivid in my mind.

0:52.9

Well, thanks for having me, John. It's always a pleasure.

0:55.4

AI is listening. So here we understand AI. What can happen to you? One is lack of competition.

1:03.9

Two is regulatory capture. We'll take them one at a time. There is no obvious solution, but there is

1:09.7

the marketplace. Let's begin with lack of

1:12.8

competition. Right now, there's one great big foot stamped in the middle of everybody's desk,

1:19.7

and that's called OpenAI, the originator. And your report says 60% of the business, in other words,

1:27.0

scale.

1:36.4

That is not competitive given the other entries into the field, but you give an example of how scale can win the battle.

1:45.4

And we turn into a story where there is no competition, there is no innovation, and everyone's risk averse.

1:48.4

Let's begin with what happened to Western Union.

1:49.4

What's the example?

1:50.5

Good evening, Kevin.

1:52.3

Good evening again, John.

1:52.7

Thank you.

1:57.7

And I think it's really important to realize that we've been at this moment before, where we've seen some sort of new technology lead to a handful or even singular

2:02.3

companies showing real expertise and real dominance, and then asking, okay, what is the right

2:07.5

regulatory approach here? And looking back at history, we see the telegraph as one of these

2:13.8

very important periods in which the prior technology, basically relying on horses

2:18.1

and ships to carry messages, was rapidly supplanted.

2:22.3

Obviously, the telegraph was far more accurate, far more timely, and far more geographically

...

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