This is John Batchel, a conversation with Professor Evan Ellis of the U.S. Army War College about Cuba.

Big article in the Wall Street Journal identifies the fact that the Trump administration wants regime change in Havana.

What is to be done?

Here, Evan observes the likelihood and then why Caracas gives momentum for something that is not that likely.

Evan explained more tonight.

Good day to you, John.

Well, in my personal opinion, the prospect for regime change in Cuba is very slim, although

certainly Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, had the National Security Council with his strong, is very slim although uh... certainly uh... marker rubio secretary state

had the national security council uh... with his uh... strong strategic grounding in

the the des centrality of cuba's ideological threat to democracy in any america's

and it's support for subversion throughout the hemisphere years and clearly

with his own uh... cuban parent Cuban parentage understands and I think probably has

helped President Trump to understand the importance of building on the perceived success in

Venezuela to have successes elsewhere. I would interpret this in the scope of a broader set of

again perceived successes or where President Trump is taking the capture of

Nicholas Maduro on January 3rd and trying to use that to enhance his credibility in other

things that he's been pushing around the world. One can mention, you know, certainly how he is

ratcheted up some of his indirect threats to act in Mexico with Claudia Shinebomb,

to act in Colombia, putting more pressure on the Gustavo Petro government in Iran with his

discourse with respect to the protesters, certainly now with Greenland, which has become the

center of, you know, U.S. focus focus with President's speech in Davos and elsewhere.

So for me, the Cuba piece certainly, again, I think supported by Secretary Rubio and others,

...