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This is John Batchel, a conversation with my colleague Michael Bernstein of the Hoover Institution,

who follows the sanctions on the Russian regime about the price of a barrel of oil.

It continues to decline, and Michael here gives us the numbers.

Important that it has fallen under 60, but it's headed much lower in the winter ahead and in the spring.

And this directly damages Russia's ability not only to maintain the war, but to come back

if there ever is an end to the war.

Michael Bernstein, a barrel of oil.

And it is now under $60, but because of Venezuela, it came back to $60 per barrel, but it will go lower because, for one simple reason, that it is an oil glutton the world, that an international energy agency issued its report, a PEC issued its monthly report,

and it shows that next year there will be 3 to 4 million barrels a day of surplus on the oil market.

So the price can go down, down, down. On each $10 of excuse me, on each, yes, on each 10 dollars of oil price decline, Russia loses

about $27 billion because it exports $7.3 million barrels a day. It's a simple arithmetic. So,

with the price of oil declined since the beginning of the war by $40, they've lost $100 billion

now a year.

So that's the trajectory.

And on this trajectory, they will be losing more.

And they sell a discount because of all the sanctions, because of all the restrictions.

And they're getting more than $20 discount in China and India and Turkey.

And so if oil is 60, they're selling at $40.40 per barrel, it's not enough for their budget.

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