S8 Ep160: PREVIEW — Michael Bernstam (Hoover Institution) — Russia's Deepening Revenue Crisis. Bernstam explains that Russia is systematically failing to close its widening budget deficit gap through gold sales or domestic bond offerings, rendering oil export reven

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John Batchelor

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🗓️ 3 December 2025

⏱️ 2 minutes

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Summary

PREVIEW — Michael Bernstam (Hoover Institution) — Russia's Deepening Revenue Crisis. Bernstam explains that Russia is systematically failing to close its widening budget deficit gap through gold sales or domestic bond offerings, rendering oil export revenue absolutely critical to fiscal sustainability. Bernstam documents that American and Westernsanctions have artificially depressed Russian crude oil prices to approximately $40 per barrel, representing a severe discount relative to the global market price of $62–$63 per barrel. Bernstam emphasizes that this price differential severely constrains Moscow's aggregate fiscal revenue, preventing the budget equilibration necessary to sustain government expenditures, military operations, and regime stability, creating a structural fiscal crisis that will deepen as sanctions enforcement continues and global energy markets adjust to Russian supply constraints.
1910 CRIMINAL FILE ON STALIN, BAKU.

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0:24.4	The home of every kind of Christmas.
0:27.4	The home of homes.
0:30.6	This is John Batchel, a conversation with colleague Michael Bernstein of Hoover Institution watching
0:35.6	the Russian sanctions and how the Russia is closing
0:39.0	its budget gap. It's not. But it is selling gold, but it's not. It is looking for other
0:45.0	sources of revenue, such as selling bonds, Raminbi bonds. It's not working. Therefore, the
0:53.0	price of oil is critical. Where, the price of oil is critical.
0:55.0	Where is the price of oil?
0:56.3	What is the discount?
0:57.8	Is Russia losing or gaining?
0:59.9	Here's Michael to explain.
1:02.3	Much more of this tonight.
1:03.7	The price of oil is declining, and the worst part for Russia is because of all these sanctions, the discount.
1:14.9	So the price of oil, the world price of oil is now at $62, $63 per barrel, but because of all
1:22.5	the sanctions and restrictions, now Russian oil sells about $40 per barrel. Officially they said that the oil sells at $44 per barrel around the world, but it includes a high brand of which sells to China and Japan, ESPO, East Siberia, Pacific Ocean. And when you sum it up, their main brand, UELs, which sells to India and China and around the world,
1:50.5	is selling about under $40 per barrel at best, which means that the discount from 62, 63 is $22.23.
2:01.2	It's a very, very high discount.

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