S8 Ep120: HEADLINE: GAIUS & GERMANICUS IN LONDINIUM 91 AD: The "When Russia Wins" War Game and NATO's Empty Shell. Gaius and Germanicus continue their discussion, reflecting on how Woodrow Wilson's 14 points led to catastrophe. They then play the "paranoid NATO dre

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John Batchelor

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🗓️ 24 November 2025

⏱️ 25 minutes

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HEADLINE: GAIUS & GERMANICUS IN LONDINIUM 91 AD: The "When Russia Wins" War Game and NATO's Empty Shell. Gaius and Germanicus continue their discussion, reflecting on how Woodrow Wilson's 14 points led to catastrophe. They then play the "paranoid NATO dream" war game, "When Russia Wins." The scenario posits that in 2028, after the 28-point plan is implemented, Russian forces occupy Narva, Estonia, but remain static. NATO fails to invoke Article 5 due to a lack of consensus, especially after Washington washes its hands of the conflict, effectively ending the alliance. Germanicus argues NATO is an "empty shell," designed only for nuclear confrontation, not hybrid warfare or lesser contingencies. While Ukraine has made peace with not joining NATO, Russia accepts Ukraine pursuing EU membership for its necessary economic connection. Russia's goal in the Baltics is primarily the protection of ethnic Russians and access to the Baltic Sea.
1940

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0:00.0	This is the Friendsfister Debating Society. I'm Guy. Dermanicus is here. Our centurions retired
0:09.0	are here as well enjoying their second or third cup of wine. I'm not been counting.
0:15.0	It's a cold evening along the Thames. I told you the boatmen are sitting on their hands.
0:21.5	It's too cold to go out there.
0:24.0	We're looking at the 28 points delivered in these last days by the emperor's counselors,
0:31.0	and we're reflecting on the 14 points Woodrow Wilson delivered in 1919
0:36.2	that led to the catastrophe of the second war and the
0:41.2	Cold War and the tearing up of the map in Europe and now the tearing up of the map in Mesopotamia.
0:49.0	So we can only guess how the map will be torn up from these 28 points.
0:53.4	However, I come to a, sometimes
0:57.1	paranoids have enemies. So when I say it's a paranoid NATO dream, I don't mean to disrespect
1:05.0	it. It's a book. It can be titled when Russia wins or if Russia wins. It's a bestseller in Europe right now.
1:12.1	It's being translated in many languages.
1:14.1	You can go on and see it, written by an Italian with national security background.
1:21.1	And the scenario I'm going to give to Germanicus, he's played plenty of tabletop games.
1:26.3	He used to be called war games.
1:28.5	You get three moves, and there's a tendency to go nuke.
1:32.8	But this time, we're not going to worry about that.
1:35.3	Because the object of the game for Russia is to destroy NATO.
1:41.1	The option of the game for NATO is to survive.
1:52.0	Here it goes. It's 2028. Ukraine is at a stand-down.
2:05.0	Ceasfire. The 28-point plan suits where Ukraine is. That's not the issue. Suddenly over the weekend, Russian forces show up in Nerva, Estonia,
	...

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