S8 Ep111: 1/2 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia att
The John Batchelor Show
John Batchelor
4.5 • 2.8K Ratings
🗓️ 22 November 2025
⏱️ 12 minutes
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Summary
Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia attacks NATO member Estonia around 2028 following a stalled conflict in Ukraine, capturing Narva and an island before halting its advance and creating confusion within NATO. Europeans, living in "Kantian dreams of eternal peace," prioritize a quick end to the conflict and fear escalation, and the scenario posits that the US President decides a World War III over a "tiny piece of land" is not worthwhile, leading Estonia to forego invoking NATO's Article 5 out of fear of alliance rejection. Grygielnotes that decades of demilitarization leave Europe unprepared for war, highlighting that US reinforcements could take 45 days to move and societies lack the political will to fund necessary rearmament.
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| 0:31.2 | This is CBS. I'm The World. |
| 0:34.1 | I'm John Batch. |
| 0:35.0 | I welcome my colleague, Jakub Grigil, a professor of politics at the |
| 0:40.0 | Catholic University of America, a senior advisor at the Marathon Initiative, a visiting fellow at the |
| 0:46.3 | Hoover Institution, writing most recently at Civitas Outlook for the Civitas Institute at the |
| 0:51.5 | University of Texas at Austin, about Europe, Europe right now, |
| 0:56.2 | and its confrontation with Russian Federation and its allies, not only as Europe, but also as the |
| 1:05.0 | EU, also as NATO. There's some overlap, but it's not one-to-one. Yacob presents us with a scenario in a new book, If Russia Wins. |
| 1:14.5 | It is written by a German national, I believe, with a great experience in national security |
| 1:21.0 | and also thinking through problems. |
| 1:23.1 | As people in national security do, they call them tabletops. |
| 1:27.0 | He used to call them war games. |
| 1:29.5 | And this war game is a fascination. |
| 1:33.3 | Weakab, a very good even to you. |
| 1:34.7 | Thank you for this. |
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