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The John Batchelor Show

#Russia: World Bank estimates that Russia''s war economy peaked in 2023 and will decline steeply to 2025. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 11 January 2024

⏱️ 9 minutes

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Summary


#Russia: World Bank estimates that Russia''s war economy peaked in 2023 and will decline steeply to 2025. Michael Bernstam, Hoover Institution.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content

Growth in Russia is projected to slow to 1.3 percent in 2024, and then to 0.9 percent in 2025, near its potential rate. Tightening monetary policy is expected to dampen domestic demand. Trade diversion to China, India, and Türkiye is evident for both exports and imports (figure 2.2.2.B). However, for products affected by sanctions in response to the invasion, the increase in imports from China only offsets about a quarter of the decrease in imports from the European Union (EU) in 2022 (Grekou, Mignon, and Ragot 2023). Capacity constraints, including tight labor market conditions and scarcity of domestic labor due to the invasion, will continue to restrict growth.

1867 Moscow

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0:00.0

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0:35.0

This is CBSi and the world.

0:37.0

I'm John Bachelor.

0:38.0

Watching the Russian economy under severe sanctions since the beginning of the war in the winter of 22.

0:45.0

I welcome Michael Bernstom, the Hoover Institution, my guide on the Russian economy.

0:49.7

Right now we have a cheat sheet.

0:52.4

It's called the World Bank, the Open Knowledge. World Bank annual

0:56.8

expectation of the economies moving forward one, two and three years and assessing what the economies did this year. The Europeans are at issue here.

1:06.5

The Russian Federation is said to have done very well before the war, 5.6, before the war, but the first year of the war, 22, it fell to

1:17.4

negative 2.1 according to World Bank. This year according to World Bank in 23 we estimate we expect at 2.6 that's now done but we don't have the final estimate yet it's too early

1:31.4

next year however 24 and 25 the Russian economy is

1:36.6

projected by the World Bank to decline dramatically. Michael these are

1:40.9

numbers and a very good evening to you.

1:43.0

What I turn on is the Russian economy now depends on its energy exports.

1:48.0

And I read the World Bank summary of that prospect.

1:52.0

Oil production and exports contracted modestly in 23,

1:57.0

and the authorities announced N23 an extension of the export curbs of 300,000 barrels per day, as well as a deepening by 200,000 barrels

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