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Bet The Process

Rufus and Jeff Get Political with Dan Rosenheck of the Economist

Bet The Process

Bet The Process

Sports

4626 Ratings

🗓️ 27 June 2024

⏱️ 78 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

This week on Bet the Process, Jeff and Rufus welcome Dan Rosenheck, the editor of the Economist’s data team, to talk election forecasting and how Dan has built his model, including political polarization and past polling errors. They also compare pro golfers to wines.

Transcript

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0:00.0

On this week's Bet the Process podcast, we get very political.

0:04.0

We have the economist Dan Rosenheck on, and we nerd, nerd, nerd out on political forecasting.

0:11.9

And then Rufus and I try to explain what First Principle's thinking is to Rufus.

0:15.6

And I'm probably just going to end up sending him a link because I don't think I did a particularly good job at it.

0:19.7

So with that, let's start the process.

0:25.0

Bet, bet, bet, bet, bet the process.

0:29.6

Bet the process.

0:32.3

Welcome to the podcast.

0:33.8

Bet the process.

0:35.0

It's not the typical cookie cutter nonsense.

0:42.1

If you came just for picks, you're in the wrong place front it's how with the narrative to make a strong case Instead of blindly assuming a team must be tanking we're looking for the edge of messy P body rankings

0:47.4

Crunching all the numbers in the simulator system that break down the data analytically driven

0:52.3

Media coverage of sports gambling is pathetic.

0:55.2

Welcome to another episode about the process podcast where Rufus and I are already arguing.

0:59.7

So that's good.

1:00.4

We're ready for a discussion.

1:03.4

Do you want, I mean, we just did the interview with Dan Rosenheck from the economist, from the econom economist and uh and uh it's

1:14.6

sister publication to cigar aficionata do you think we should do like a post analysis of that

1:21.0

as our thing and kind of just jump in because you know you asked me during the interview of i was okay

1:25.8

and i was like listening and there's a lot of interesting themes.

1:28.5

I don't think I'm like as nerdy out about like election forecasting.

1:32.8

But broadly speaking, I think election forecasting of the category brings out some very

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