Robin Hanson on the Technological Singularity

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4.7 • 4.3K Ratings

🗓️ 3 January 2011

⏱️ 97 minutes

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Summary

Robin Hanson of GMU talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the idea of a technological singularity--a sudden, large increase in the rate of growth due to technological change. Hanson argues that it is plausible that a change in technology could lead to world output doubling every two weeks rather than every 15 years, as it does currently. Hanson suggests a likely route to such a change is to port the human brain into a computer-based emulation. Such a breakthrough in artificial intelligence would lead to an extraordinary increase in productivity creating enormous wealth and radically changing the returns to capital and labor. The conversation looks at the feasibility of the process and the intuition behind the conclusions. Hanson argues for the virtues of such a world.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to Econ Talk, part of the Library of Economics and Liberty. I'm your host Russ Roberts
0:13.9	of George Mason University and Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Our website is econtalk.org
0:21.2	where you can subscribe, find other episodes, comment on this podcast, and find links to
0:26.5	another information related to today's conversation. Our email address is mailadicontalk.org. We'd
0:33.6	love to hear from you. Today is December 23, 2010, and my guest is Robin Hansen of George Mason
0:44.2	University. This is the last podcast I'll record in 2010, and if all goes as planned, it will
0:50.1	be the first podcast released in 2011. So I thought it a good time to take stock. I want to
0:55.3	mention how grateful I am for the opportunity to spend an hour with you out there listening. I think
1:00.4	this is our 247th episode, approximately. We haven't missed a Monday for the last two years. I'm
1:06.8	grateful to Liberty Fund, the foundation that supports econtalk, and the Library of Economics and
1:11.6	Liberty, econlive.org that houses econtalk on the web. And I'm grateful to the people I work with
1:17.2	Lauren Landsberg and Rich Goyette, who do such a great job getting these, getting these podcast
1:21.4	you with tremendous sound quality and great resources online to help you learn more if you're
1:26.2	interested. Finally, I want to thank all of you out there who make this experience so rewarding.
1:30.4	You're probably listening because someone told you about what we're doing. So please continue
1:35.0	to spread the word about econtalk to anyone you think might enjoy it. And please keep your
1:39.2	suggestions and feedback coming to mailadicontalk.org. As I've said before, I read every one of them,
1:44.7	even if I don't always respond, your feedback is a huge part of what makes this experience so
1:49.3	gratifying. Now for today's guest, Robin Hansen. Robin, welcome back to econtalk. Thank you.
1:54.3	Our topic today is fitting for the end of the year. It's kind of an end of day's topic for some
2:03.4	folks, a new world that we might be entering. The idea of what is called a technological singularity.
2:10.3	The idea, I hope I'm getting this right, you'll correct me if I'm not. The technology could advance
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