Rising Unemployment Could Spill Into Real Estate (But By How Much?)

On The Market

BiggerPockets

Investing, News, Education, Business

4.8 • 858 Ratings

🗓️ 18 September 2025

⏱️ 38 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Is the labor market finally cracking, and what does that mean for the housing market? Dave Meyer distills the latest BLS and ADP payrolls, JOLTS, and unemployment data, from August’s 22,000 nonfarm payroll gain and a 4.3% jobless rate to a 900,000 downward revision and a spike in initial claims, to show a clear cooling trend. He explains why a softer labor market raises the odds of Fed cuts yet inflation keeps pressure on interest rates, so mortgage rates may ease only modestly, boosting transaction volume more than home prices or housing prices. You will hear practical plays for real estate investors, including watching local job numbers, prioritizing tenant retention and collections, and considering refinances if you hold 7 to 8 percent loans, plus how markets like Las Vegas and San Francisco may diverge. Dave’s housing market prediction and forecast: a soft but functioning market with cautious upside, where housing prices stabilize and conservative underwriting wins until clearer trends emerge. Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area Find Investor-Friendly Lenders Property Manager Finder Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-357 Interested in learning more about today’s sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	In the last few weeks, several reports have come out showing that the job market in the U.S.
0:05.3	is weak, and it's getting weaker.
0:08.0	And the labor market is tied to the housing market and to the overall investing climate in all sorts of ways.
0:15.6	So today, we're diving into the latest labor market news and how it's going to spill over into the world of real estate
0:21.3	investing.
0:26.9	Hey, everyone, I'm Dave Meyer.
0:28.6	Thank you all so much for being here for this episode of On the Market.
0:32.0	I'm super glad to have you.
0:34.4	On today's episode, we're diving into the world of the labor market. There has been
0:40.0	a lot of news coming out over the last couple of weeks, and we need to make sense of it,
0:44.4	because there's a lot of different reports that show us different things, and each of those
0:49.7	reports and the data that's contained within them do have real impacts on the housing market and the
0:56.3	investing climate. And I know that's not always immediately obvious, but it's definitely true.
1:02.1	The labor market is connected to the housing market and mortgage rates in some pretty direct
1:08.0	ways. And so that's what we're going to get into today. Let's jump right in.
1:12.0	All right.
1:12.3	So let's talk about the reports that have come out.
1:15.0	And there are a lot of them.
1:17.5	And I'm going to go through a couple of different sources here, maybe more than I do when
1:22.6	we're talking about other subjects on this show for some important reasons.
1:27.2	And that's because there are many different ways that the labor market is measured,
1:30.9	because it's so important.
	...

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