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Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Rising Stagflation Risks Are Changing the Investment Playbook

Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Goldman Sachs

Business

4.41K Ratings

🗓️ 12 April 2022

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

For decades, investors have relied on a 60/40 portfolio — a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds — for steady growth and income. But rising stagflation risks are raising the possibility of a “lost decade” of returns for investors in these balanced portfolios while changing the playbook for portfolio construction, according to Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research in Goldman Sachs Research, and Maria Vassalou, co-chief investment officer of Multi-Asset Solutions in the Asset Management Division, in the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Slowing economic growth, rising inflation, and ongoing market volatility sparked by the Russia-Ukraine

0:06.3

war are upending investors portfolios.

0:09.2

Does that mean we expect the lost decade?

0:11.8

No. Does that mean we expect possibly that a 60-40 portfolio will deliver

0:16.4

less than the average real return we've seen in the last hundred years, which is around 5%

0:21.1

per annum? I think yes. I think it would be much more difficult

0:24.5

to achieve that 5% real return,

0:26.9

which we had over the long run

0:28.2

and certainly quite difficult to get anywhere close

0:30.4

to where we were in the last cycle.

0:32.2

I'm Allison Nathan, and this is exchanges at Goldman Sachs. For decades investors have relied on a 60-40 portfolio, a mix of 60% stocks and 40

0:50.0

bonds for steady growth and income. But rising

0:53.6

statulation risks are raising the possibility of a lost decade for

0:57.4

investors in these balanced portfolios. Today we'll discuss how investors

1:01.6

are rethinking their portfolio strategies in the current market environment.

1:05.6

To do that, I'm joined by Christian Mueller Glistman, who heads asset allocation research efforts within portfolio strategy in Goldman Sachs research, and Maria Bassalu, research

1:13.0

and Maria Bassalu, co-chief investment officer of the multi-asset solutions group

1:18.0

within our asset management division.

1:20.0

Christian, Maria, welcome to the program.

1:22.0

Thanks for having me. Thank you, Allison. division. Christian, Maria, welcome to the program.

1:23.0

Thanks for having me.

1:24.0

Thank you, Allison.

...

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