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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Richard Koo: How Excessive Corporate Debt Could Thwart Future Economic Growth

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Investing, Business News, News, Business

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 27 March 2021

⏱️ 59 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Richard Koo, chief economist at Nomura Research Institute, returns to Real Vision to update his framework on how key economic variables such cash, liquidity, savings, and debt have been impacted by the global recession. In this interview with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison, Koo applies to the current situation his noted theory of a "balance sheet recession" in which liquidity is ample, but the private sector nevertheless remains focused on paying down debt. Koo and Harrison analyze the interplay between the economic shutdown and economic growth. Lastly, Koo shares his views about quantitative easing, negative interest rates, central bank digital currencies, and ongoing efforts by central banks to stem the damage wreaked by the pandemic. Recorded on January 29, 2021 Key learnings: Koo thinks that the unprecedented interventions of central banks were necessary to meet the once-in-a-lifetime crisis of COVID-19. Like many, Koo expects that economic growth will pick up once pent-up demand is unleashed. However, after this spurt of economic activity, Koo thinks that the overhang of debt could cause a significant balance sheet recession that is contractionary and deflationary. For our Listeners : Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique promo link skillshare.com/realvision Protect your portfolio and join 130,000 members by signing up at masterworks.io with promo code REAL VISION today to skip the waitlist. See important information at masterworks.io/disclaimer Checkout Jordan Harbinger Show @ https://www.jordanharbinger.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Real Vision. I'm Ed Harrison for Real Vision and I have the distinct pleasure

0:16.5

of speaking to Richard Koo of Namiro Research, the Chief Economist there. Mr. Koo, great

0:23.7

to talk to you. Pleasure, it's mine too. You know, we spoke right near the beginning

0:31.1

of the crisis, this pandemic that we're in right now. And a lot has happened since then.

0:38.4

And so one of the reasons that I'm talking to you, it's late in Japan where you are

0:44.3

and early where I am here in the DC area. But a lot of things have happened and I wanted

0:51.7

to get a sense for you what you're thinking now in terms of this pandemic and the economic

0:58.4

crisis that it's unfolded as a result of it. The thing that I found very interesting because

1:06.6

you and I were spoke yesterday around the same time is when you said you wished that you

1:12.4

were a doctor instead of an economist. Can you explain that comment?

1:17.1

You know, this particular recession or pandemic is really coming from this very external

1:24.0

source called coronavirus. And this is very uncompromising virus. And so we learned over

1:36.1

the last year that those countries that try to kind of balance between the virus and

1:42.7

the economy, virtually all failed. Only those economies that make no compromise actually

1:51.8

succeeded. So we have a cases in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia where even the smallest

1:59.6

increase in infections, wow, they go really after them to make sure that they don't spread.

2:05.7

Taiwan did that from the very beginning just as when this virus was spreading. And they

2:14.2

did a beautiful job of both mobilizing entire population, plus whatever the government

2:20.2

can do. And so over this entire period, the number of infections in Taiwan, which is

2:26.3

a country of 23 million people, is less than 900, entire period. And they have something

2:34.8

like 250 days without a single domestic infection because they really did a good job at the

2:40.7

beginning. And then New Zealand, Australia also did a very strict lockdowns when it was

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