Reading the tea leaves of early polling
KCRW's Left, Right & Center
KCRW
4.2 • 4.8K Ratings
🗓️ 24 November 2023
⏱️ 51 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
With the primary season just around the corner, voters can expect an influx of polling data. Sorting through it all can be tricky. David Wasserman of the non-partisan Cook Political Report discusses what numbers we should be paying attention to, and explains why questions about poll reliability are valid.
Joe Manchin's decision to not run for re-election in West Virginia has stoked suspicions around the senator’s possible third-party candidacy. Can the growing field of third-party candidates expect to make an impact relying on personality over issues?
The Boston Tea Party’s 250th anniversary is just around the corner. Author Stacy Schiff discusses the importance of the event in the American Revolution and why it was more than just a riot.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to left right and center. I'm Sarah Isker. David Green is back next week, but I'm here as usual with Moley thief. |
| 0:08.0 | We are less than two months away from the Iowa Caucasus and less than a year away from the 2024 general election. |
| 0:15.6 | And we are going to talk a lot about the presidential race this week. |
| 0:18.4 | For one thing, we have been inundated with polls lately telling us what direction things are headed in and it hasn't |
| 0:24.4 | been good news for Joe Biden. |
| 0:27.8 | Jake the country has soured on Joe Biden there's just not another way to put it according to our latest |
| 0:34.4 | CNN poll. What's worse for Biden, Donald Trump is gaining ground and key |
| 0:38.4 | battleground states. A New York Times-Ciana poll showing the former president is |
| 0:42.4 | leading Biden in Arizona, Michigan, |
| 0:45.0 | Nevada, and Pennsylvania. |
| 0:47.0 | The only battleground state Biden would retain, according to the poll, is Wisconsin. |
| 0:52.0 | There, he leads Trump by two points, 47 to 45. |
| 0:56.7 | So Mo I guess that's it. You guys should just pack it in, right? Before we get too deep |
| 1:02.4 | into this I want to bring in someone who is usually swimming in |
| 1:05.4 | poll numbers. David Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst from the nonpartisan Cook political |
| 1:10.8 | report. Hi Dave! Hey, great to be with you. |
| 1:16.0 | Obviously, we all know the polls this far out are a snapshot in time of this time. |
| 1:20.1 | They are not a prediction. So let's flip this around. What value do polls have this far out? |
| 1:27.9 | Well they can show us which parts of the electorate have trended since the last election more than others. |
| 1:35.0 | What is really striking about the polling we're seeing today is that |
| 1:39.0 | voters are broadly dissatisfied with the likely nominees in 2024. |
| 1:45.0 | Third-party candidates are receiving in hypothetical matchups |
... |
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