Welcome back to The Breakdown with me, NLW.

It's a daily podcast on macro, Bitcoin, and the big picture power shifts remaking our world.

What's going on, guys? It is Tuesday, July 29th, and today we are talking about the point

of no return. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go

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conversation, come join us on the Breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go

to bit.ly slash breakdown pod. Hello, friends. Today we are doing something a little bit different.

While this summer has very much not been the standard doldrumy summer that we've had in many

years past, it is still finally starting to get a little quiet, at least relatively

speaking, and it's in those quiet moments that many people start to

zoom out and think big. One of those people is Ray Dalio. Legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio

has been pounding the table about the secular decline of the dollar for years at this stage.

In late 2021, he released a book entitled Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.

Since then, he has

iterated on the book releasing YouTube videos and a series of Twitter threads to narrate the shift

in the global order. His core thesis is that the U.S. is in its twilight years as a hegemonic

power, and will soon see debt, social degradation, and failures of governance lead to the

end of empire. While the rise of China was a central part of the original

thesis, Dalyo's point hasn't been to argue that China would inevitably take the crown from the

U.S. It was more that generations of promises are coming due and the U.S. can't meet its obligations.

Dahlio has de-emphasized China's role over the past year, refocusing instead on the core concept.

Empires and fiat currency systems have an expiration date, and in his view, that date is rapidly approaching.

...