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Rationally Speaking Podcast

Rationally Speaking #190 - Amanda Askell on "Pascal's Wager and other low risks with high stakes"

Rationally Speaking Podcast

New York City Skeptics

Society & Culture, Skepticism, Science, Philosophy

4.6787 Ratings

🗓️ 6 August 2017

⏱️ 46 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

You've probably heard of Pascal's Wager: That it's rational to believe in God, because if you're wrong it's no big deal, but if you're right then the payoff is huge. This episode features philosopher Amanda Askell, who (though not religious herself) argues that it's much trickier to rebut Pascal's Wager than most people think. Amanda and Julia also discuss how to handle other decisions where a risk has very low probability but would matter a lot if it came true -- should you round them down to zero? Does it matter how measurable the risk is? And should you take into account the chance you're being scammed?

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today's episode of Rationally Speaking is sponsored by Givewell, a nonprofit dedicated to finding outstanding charities and publishing their full analysis to help donors decide where to give.

0:09.2

They do rigorous research to quantify how much good a given charity does, how many lives does it save, or how much does it reduce poverty per dollar donated.

0:17.4

You can read all about their research or just check out their short list of top recommended evidence-based charities to maximize the amount of good that your donations can do.

0:25.3

It's free and available to everyone online. Check them out at give well.org. Welcome to rationally speaking, the podcast where we explore the borderlands between reason and nonsense.

0:48.2

I'm your host, Julia Galef, and with me is today's guest, Amanda Askell.

0:52.5

Amanda is in her final year of her philosophy PhD at NYU, where her research focuses on all the ways in which incorporating infinities into our decision theory and our moral theory causes problems.

1:06.2

Amanda, welcome to the show.

1:07.4

Thank you for having me.

1:08.3

So I've been meaning to invite you on the show for a while now, but the immediate impetus

1:13.6

was in a recent episode with Will McCaskill.

1:15.6

We were talking about normative uncertainty, among other things, and we ventured briefly into

1:22.6

the territory of Pascal's Wager, which very briefly is the philosophical argument put forth by Blaise Pascal

1:30.1

in which he said, people should really try to believe in God because if you're wrong and there is

1:35.0

no God, then oh well, that's fine. But if there is a God, then believing in him is going to be

1:41.5

much better for you than not believing in him. And so the sort of

1:45.2

expected utility of belief is much higher. And this is one of those arguments that I find there's

1:52.5

this non-monitonic relationship between how much philosophical exposure people have and how seriously

1:57.5

they take that argument in that a lot of people without a ton of education

2:02.1

are like, yeah, that makes sense. You should believe because higher payoff. And then a lot of people

2:06.8

who are like well educated are very dismissive of Pascal's wager and they're like, oh, that's ridiculous

2:11.2

and they have one or two objections to it. And then philosophers are like, well, actually it's

2:15.8

harder to dismiss than you might think, which is kind of an inch. I like, I like things with that shape of like people's belief in them.

...

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