Live from the Nezac market site in the heart of New York City Times Square, this is fast money. Here's what's on top tonight. The great rate spike yields rising across the board, the two-year closing in on 4 percent. What is driving the moves and what's it mean for the rest of the market? And crude realities, oil prices taking a leg lower in just the last hour on reports of a ceasefire in the Middle East. Can a truce hold and can prices go lower from here?

Plus, Ralph Lauren gets an upgrade on Wall Street, the latest on the weight loss race from

Bimo's Metabolic Health Conference, and a rough day for software names like Palo Alto

will hear from CEO Nikesh Aurora on why the sell-off may be overdone

and how the cyber industry can navigate the constantly changing landscape in the face of AI. I'm Melissa Lee. Home Delauson Studio, Biazanoz, on the desk tonight. St. Grasso, Karen Feinerman, Dan Nathan, and Guy Adami. We start off with yields ripping higher after a rough two-year treasury auction this afternoon. Rates on short-term Treasury is getting close to 4% on a very weak demand.

The damage spilling into longer-term rates as well, the 30-year getting oh so close to 5%.

Meanwhile, the yield curve flattening again in the latest sign that investors are growing

more concerned about the state of the U.S. economy.

Amid all of this, markets now pricing in a more than 6% chance of a rate hike as soon as April. A rate hike, I said. How concerned should we be about these moves? Our market should be concerned without question. The auction was awful. One of the worst ones we've had in a very long time. In a long time, I mean decades, I think. And in terms

of 10-year yields, I don't think it's coincidental. I mean, look at where 10-year yields got up to today. I think 4-43, 4-44. And that coincided with the announcement that there are Pete's talks coming later in the week. I think we've said this a number of times. The administration it might be focused on the stock market. They're laser focused on the bond market,

and right now it's going the wrong way. Well, that's the thing. They're telling two different stories. So which one do you believe? Well, here's the deal. I mean, the 10-year has not had that much of an impact on equities. If you think back, the last time was at last time was at four and a half. Let's just say we're right there. I mean, the S&P was much lower, right?

So if you think about where we are right there. I mean, the S&P was much lower,

right? So if you think about where we are right now, you know, we went from rate cut expectations and a bunch of them, I guess, over like an 18-month period. And now you have this chatter, like I just mentioned, about the potential for rate hikes. So the problem to me is more inflation. It's more a weakening labor market.

It's more the strength of the dollar of late.

And, you know, you think about S&P 500 earnings. You know, it's still very, very concentrated among those top 10 names that are concentrated from a market cap standpoint. If you start to see a deceleration in that earnings growth, then you probably have a problem for the rest of the 493. And you think about the performance then of those names, investors are kind of telling you that they're expecting some form of deceleration. Now on the flip side, the more cyclical parts of the market, we've already seen huge moves in industrials. We've seen huge move in energy, that sort of thing.

So I'm just bringing it back through the lens of the stock market. I mean, I think the market's okay with yields around here. But to guys' point, you start getting the four and a half on its way to five. That's when you really start to call into question, I think, valuation in the equity market. So I agree with you. Everything? What? Wow.

Wow.

What a time?

I know.

I know.

So I agree with you. Everything? Half a chance. Wow. What a chance?

I know. So I do agree that four and a half on its own face is not necessarily a bad thing. It is

...