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Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis

Q2-2020 Delivery & Production Estimates (06.30.20)

Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis

Rob Maurer

Tech News, Technology, News

4.81.1K Ratings

🗓️ 1 July 2020

⏱️ 17 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Video Link: https://youtu.be/07JVDZXASeo

➤ As Tesla's second quarter comes to a close, the company is set to announce Q2 delivery and production numbers in early July
➤ Wall St. consensus estimates near 70,000 deliveries may leave considerable room for Tesla to surprise to the upside, even in the midst of rising expectations
➤ Rob Maurer of Tesla Daily walks through a Tesla Q2 delivery and production estimate including Model Y, Model 3, Model S, and Model X as well as production splits between Giga Shanghai and Tesla's Fremont factory

Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/teslapodcast
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast

Ludicrous producer Fred Hassen
Executive producer Rish Singh
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Nick Wood
Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Bradford Ferguson
Executive producer Andre Kent
Executive producer Bryce Langlotz
Music by Evan Schaeffer

Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:13.4

Hey everybody Rob mower here on the last day of Tesla's second quarter and today we will be going through my forecast for Tesla's production and delivery numbers for the quarter. Before we get into the numbers

0:16.7

though Tesla stock on the day today finished up about 7% to 1,79.8181 and closed with the market capitalization above $200 billion.

0:27.5

This is an all-time high close for Tesla.

0:29.8

Also notable because Tesla passed the market and gas company but ExxonMobil has at times been the

0:39.6

most valuable company in the world.

0:42.0

This is a real sign of a new era.

0:44.3

As far as the up 7% on the day, I think that's mostly a reaction and the market's starting

0:48.6

to understand the significance of what we talked about yesterday, Elon's leaked email, saying that Tesla was closed to break even for the quarter.

0:55.0

One of the implications of that for the market is higher delivery expectations, but of course we've already had relatively high expectations to the market.

1:02.0

Back in May I laid out a forecast for about 88,000. relatively high expectations to the market.

1:02.7

Back in May, I laid out a forecast for about 88,000 deliveries for Q2.

1:06.8

So given that Tesla was profitable on that level of deliveries in Q1,

1:10.5

flirting with profitability shouldn't be too much of a surprise to us.

1:13.7

Today though, as the quarter comes to a close, I am raising my forecast.

1:17.4

Before we get into the numbers, I want to quickly look at when we should be expecting the

1:20.8

delivery and production report from Tesla based on past releases.

1:24.4

Tesla began doing these within three days of quarter end back in early 2015 after Q1 2015,

1:30.0

so we've had 21 quarterly releases now. 11 of them have been within two days of the end of a quarter,

1:35.0

nine of them within three days,

1:37.0

and then one time back in April of 2016,

1:39.0

it took four days.

1:40.0

And that was over a weekend,

...

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