Q1 Delivery/Production Report Discussion (04.02.20)
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
Rob Maurer
4.8 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 3 April 2020
⏱️ 11 minutes
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Summary
Tesla today reported Q1 deliveries +40% compared to 2019 and production +33% to 2019, causing TSLA stock to rise by 18% in after-hours trading as Tesla's Model Y and Gigafactory Shanghai continue to ramp up. Today's episode recaps everything we learned from Tesla's report, and what was missing. How will TSLA stock react going forward?
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Executive producer Rish Singh
Executive producer Jeremy Cooke
Executive producer Nick Wood
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Executive producer Troy Cherasaro
Executive producer Bradford Ferguson
Executive producer Andre Kent
Music by Evan Schaeffer
Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hey everybody Rob mower here and today we are of course talking about Tesla's Q1 delivery and production report which just came out after market close today and as we can tell by the after hours movement in the stock up about 14% as I'm recording this the market is reacting very positively to this report. |
| 0:22.9 | So let's look at the numbers. |
| 0:24.1 | In Q1, Tesla produced 102,672 vehicles |
| 0:28.1 | and delivered 88,400. |
| 0:30.8 | So starting with deliveries here, that 88,,400 that was well above the 80,000 that we had discussed as a whisper number on Tuesday's episode. |
| 0:39.0 | And while at that time the total fact set consensus was at 91,500 roughly. |
| 0:43.7 | As we had talked about, not all analysts had updated their estimates |
| 0:47.2 | with the information about the Fremont shutdown. |
| 0:49.7 | So for those that had, which I later tweeted out, the estimated consensus among those analysts was 79,000. |
| 0:56.0 | So that helps explain some of the strong reaction in after-hours trading. |
| 0:59.6 | We'll talk more about production in a second, but sticking with deliveries, that 88,000 number is up 40% year |
| 1:05.1 | over year from the 63,000 last year in Q1, and down 21% quarter over quarter, which of course |
| 1:10.5 | was expected because Tesla had been draining inventory for so long. |
| 1:14.0 | This quarter, deliveries were never going to exceed production like they had the last three quarters. |
| 1:19.2 | Plus you have tax changes happening this quarter, you have the seasonal weakness already in Q1 and then all |
| 1:23.8 | the macro environment stuff going on as well. So this 88,000 number very strong. |
| 1:28.0 | Fortunately that did line up with my forecast which I pretty much approached from a production |
| 1:32.4 | standpoint which means that this quarter it's unlikely that Tesla had much issue selling the cars due to the macro environment situation, which is really impressive to see. |
| 1:41.0 | In terms of the delivery breakdown, S&X were actually combined up 1% year |
| 1:45.8 | over year from the roughly 12,100 last year to 12,200 this year. And then model 3 and |
| 1:51.4 | model Y, which Tesla combined on the same line here. |
| 1:54.0 | So we didn't actually get a breakout for Model Y, but those two combined were up 50% to 76,200 from last year's roughly 50,900. |
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