We're talking projecting rookie quarterbacks on RotoViz Radio.

What's up, Roto Viz?

Welcome back to the RotoViz fantasy football podcast.

I am Dave Kaben, one of the owners at RotoViz.

I will be coming to you for a solo episode this evening.

And what I want to talk about tonight as I record here is why it's so hard to project quarterbacks at the next level and why it is such a difficult endeavor to build a model

that is going to be able to project quarterbacks,

it's hard to even find something that you can point to as useful

before you even get into some of the considerations about

have you built a model that actually works from a

statistical standpoint, does it export to other data, some of that technical stuff that

you would start looking into when you're building models through more traditional kind

of academic approach versus what you might hear some people talk

about when they're looking for relationships, finding different ways to filter players,

what have you.

But what I wanted to do was come up with something like a very simple, multiple linear regression model,

something along those lines.

It helps give some context to the type of things that you might look for in a young passer.

And this is a modeling approach where you are essentially blending a couple of different variables

for a player.

They each get a coefficient, which is really kind of like a multiplier.

So you might say if it has like three variables in it, you'd multiply passing yards by a certain multiplier,

...