This is John Batchelor speaking with my colleague Simon Constable.

He's in the south of France.

He's an Englishman reflecting on the French vote, but also most importantly the British vote pending within hours.

The choices between labor,

Kirstarmer, Sir Kirstarmer leading.

The Conservatives, so-called Tories, Rishi Sunak, leading, and Reform UK, Nigel Farage, leading.

Simon reflects on how the polls are not very reliable because people won't answer or they

say that they are undecided right up to the end. Many conservative voters undecided

right up to the end. The polling right now shows labor around 40, maybe a little

less. The conservatives around 19 and the garage group right behind them at 18 but that's a national poll

this is first past the post in constituencies and you put together your party on the

basis of how many seats you win first passed the post.

So not a nail-biter, labor wins, but by how much, and how does conservative going into the opposition, how do they perform over the next five years at least?

As Simon reflects, five years would be a short time for a party to take control of Parliament by majority.

We'll see.

Simon Constable, in the south of France, the UK votes on July 4th. More of this tonight.

What we do know about British politics is that you tend to have one party in power for a few terms and the terms are up to five years and it's a flexible

thing so we saw that with Margaret Thatcher's government we saw that with Tony Blair and then Gordon Brown, and we've seen that with the

Conservatives. So I think what I'm reading into a lot of things is that this will be

Labour's turn. Now, the question is by how much,

is it going to squeak through or is it going to be a landslide?

There's been a lot of talk about landslides.

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