This is John Patchler, conversation with my colleague Elizabeth Peek of the Hill and Fox News

about the word recession and the Federal Reserve and what to watch for right now.

There is no obvious signal that a recession is imminent,

concludes Liz. At the same time there are two things to watch and worry about and

she identifies them very carefully here.

Two things to watch and worry about.

One we can't control, the other one we can.

Elizabeth Peek, on the hill and on Fox News, worrying about commercial real estate and government spending.

You know, it's very hard to sort of conclude that there's anything much going wrong or that

a recession is imminent.

I think that there are two things I think that should worry people concerned about these issues.

One, the commercial real estate industry is still facing a real black hole and nobody knows

how bad it's going to be. Nobody, there is a

there is a gigantic volume 30% something like that

of all commercial real estate loans that have to be

refinanced this coming year. That means reappraising these properties. That means

realizing losses in a lot of cities, a lot of buildings, and we much spending going on in the federal government. Why are people now looking at a soft

landing? Because the government continues to flood our economy with money. And you know, there's just no sort of simpler way of saying it we're still

running trillion-plus dollar deficits the last rolling 12 months the deficit

was up another I think $190 billion it isn't getting better and I think

Congress is going to be arguing about this there is no quick fix and the Republicans are going to get blamed if there's a government

shutdown but to be honest if we go to a position where there are automatic 1% cuts in spending?

...