This is John Bachelor speaking to Chris Regal of scholar.com, my colleague,

about the surprising report from China that the manufacturing measure had moved above 50 percent, 50 and above is expanding, below 50 is contracting.

I ask Chris, is this credible given that we don't have comparable good numbers from hiring or from solving the real estate

crater. Chris's answer is both blunt and takes into account the question of investment from the outside into China.

Where is it?

This is Chris Regal of scholar.com about the Chinese claim that they've bottomed out and are turning higher

again.

No, John, it's super easy. If you're the Chinese government, you simply fake the number.

It's extremely well known not to trust any

official Chinese government figures on economic output. They're completely

politically motivated. That being said, if you look at indicators that they cannot

fake such as iron ore imports or container export you can get a much better view of

the truth.

Additionally, China faces the headwind of non-Chinese investments.

So external investment into China has cratered and has been in a very bad state for the past 18 months

without that capital coming into China even though China has amazing

manufacturing capabilities and is the factory floor for the world without additional capital coming in from the outside or

orders coming in from the outside, it's stuck.

More of this later.