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The John Batchelor Show

PREVIEW: #PRC: Conversation with colleague Chris Riegel of #SCALA˽REPORT re the Beijing boast that it can revive its credit collapse "Lost Decade" damaged economy by subsidized high end manufacturing products such as EVs and chips that can be dumped in Eu

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 28 March 2024

⏱️ 2 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

PREVIEW: #PRC: Conversation with colleague Chris Riegel of #SCALA˽REPORT re the Beijing boast that it can revive its credit collapse "Lost Decade" damaged economy by subsidized high end manufacturing products such as EVs and chips that can be dumped in Europe and the Americas -- an assertion that meets with much doubt and opposition in Europe and the US. More later.

https://www.ft.com/content/ae517907-0244-4344-ad0a-1d029c03555b

October 1, 1949 Beijing

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is John Bachelor, speaking with my colleague Chris Wiegel of scholar.com about the

0:06.4

announced plans by the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party,

0:11.3

Shijinping in particular, to revive the now failing and troubled Chinese economy

0:18.0

with a credit bubble built on a real estate bubble built on expectations that were magical thinking for decades.

0:26.8

The way they're going to compensate for that is to turn manufacturing into a major, major global industry at the high end.

0:37.0

EVs, microchips, solar panels, high technology to sell to Europe and America and that will offset their credit

0:47.4

collapse. Chris answers this by reminding all of us that China and its sense of persecution and

0:56.3

isolation the limits itself from such an ambition. It's closed to the outside. It practices theft routinely of IP and that leads to being

1:10.3

doomed as the middle manufacturer of the world, not the high end. Here's Chris Regal to explain.

1:17.0

Chris Riegel of Scala.com more of this later.

1:21.0

I think she's watching the economic numbers to say China has an unfair

1:28.0

advantage and competition because of government sponsorship of many of the

1:31.8

businesses whether that's directly government owned government subsidize government of manufacturing, will that be microchips or automobiles or other, where China does not

1:45.3

excel as the high tier. China cannot compete with TSMC for chipmaking. China cannot compete

1:52.4

with Boeing or Airbus for airplanes or Tesla for direct

1:55.8

automobile. So Mr. She seeks to climb that ladder to top tier, but you cannot do that in an isolated adversarial environment where IP is not protected.

2:09.0

You have to do that on a global stage and China has not yet embraced things such as IP protection on the global stage so they'll always stay at that second tier until they open up.

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