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The John Batchelor Show

PREVIEW: LEBANON: Colleague Jonathan Schanzer, FDD (Foundation for Defense of Democracies), measures the poor prospects for a ceasefire or peace deal with Hezbollah. More tonight.

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 12 November 2024

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

PREVIEW: LEBANON: Colleague Jonathan Schanzer, FDD (Foundation for Defense of Democracies), measures the poor prospects for a ceasefire or peace deal with Hezbollah. More tonight.

1950 Beirut

Transcript

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0:00.0

This is John Batchel, a conversation with colleague Jonathan Shanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

0:07.0

Hezbollah, their negotiations said to be underway in Beirut back and forth.

0:13.0

However, Jonathan outlines why it is that Hezbollah cannot surrender, cannot negotiate, can do nothing but continue to fire rockets into Israel,

0:25.6

and wait the guidance, the leadership, the bad actors in Tehran.

0:32.6

Jonathan Shanzer on Hezbollah, and the possibility of ceasefire is minimal. Perhaps doesn't exist. Minimal.

0:44.2

More of this tonight. Yeah, I don't I don't actually see these negotiations going particularly

0:50.0

well. Almost Hoxstein, the envoy for President Biden, has been spending a lot of time in the region.

0:57.1

There is some discussion right now about a possible deal that would force Hezbollah north of the Latani.

1:04.0

I think Hezbollah is going to have a hard time accepting a deal where it loses operational territory and that it's forced to withdraw or disarm in certain

1:14.8

areas. I do think, though, that there is a real need being articulated by the Israelis.

1:22.9

They want out of this war. And by the way, Trump is now saying that he wants everybody out of this war,

1:28.5

that he is, that he prefers to see this war wrapped up before he steps into office on January 20th.

1:36.7

I think that's an interesting dynamic, but really, I think the answer only lies with Iran.

1:43.8

The regime in Iran will ultimately decide whether

1:46.5

Hezbollah continues to be deployed. The new leader of Hezbollah likely does not have much

1:51.6

of a say in all of this. We're watching Hezbollah, even as it has been depleted. Even as we have

1:58.2

watched it get hurt, its leadership struck down, its longer range missiles, depleted.

2:05.6

All of these things are good news, but they are still, as you know, John, firing missiles and drones into Israel, 200 per day.

2:14.3

The Israelis cannot, and I think have made the decision that they will not intercept

2:18.7

all of them. That means more destruction and mayhem on Israel's north. This plays to an advantage

2:24.6

for the regime in Iran and for Hezbollah. War of attrition is a win for them. The longer they

2:30.3

can do it, the weaker Israel gets, the more their morale is eroded. So it's interesting

...

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