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The John Batchelor Show

PREVIEW:#GAZA: #HAMAS: Excerpt from a conversation with Professor of Statistics and Data at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Abraham Wyner re the casualties reports by the Gaza-based Hamas Healthy Ministry that to a statistician's eye sugg

The John Batchelor Show

John Batchelor

Society & Culture, Arts, News, Books

4.52.8K Ratings

🗓️ 15 March 2024

⏱️ 3 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

PREVIEW:#GAZA: #HAMAS: Excerpt from a conversation with Professor of Statistics and Data at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Abraham Wyner re the casualties reports by the Gaza-based Hamas Healthy Ministry that to a statistician's eye suggest fraud-- the professor explains. More later.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

1920 Gaza

Transcript

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0:00.0

Book your ticket to happiness with Sun Express Airlines. This is John Bachelor.

0:18.6

This is John Bachelor, conversation

0:20.4

with Professor Abraham Weiner of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania,

0:25.0

statistician, a teacher of statistics, writing a tablet magazine, identifies indicators that that is noticeable to statisticians. They are too balanced, they're too perfect.

0:45.0

And the professor tells a story of Mendelssohn, the great scientist who wanted his

0:51.0

first insight about how we get genes DNA from different parents.

0:56.6

Too Perfect was the version that he produced.

1:00.6

He wanted it perfectly.

1:02.1

That is in how statistics works.

1:03.7

Listen to the professor, he explains. This doesn't prove, but it does suggest that what we're

1:09.2

looking at from the Hamas Health Ministry are contrived arbitrary made up statistics about men, women, and

1:18.6

children casualties.

1:21.1

More to come.

1:22.1

That's exactly right. This is one of the many ways that fraud appears. In fact, I can reach back into history.

1:28.0

There was a great scientist named Mendel who discovered the way genes combined and we got one gene from one parent and one gene from the other and he created this chart

1:38.0

The very very important biological chart in genetics which show the proportion and in what we call equilibrium of

1:45.7

combinations of genes and it would be 50% 25% for the different combinations and

1:50.9

in the data set it was too perfect. It was 50% exactly, 25% exactly, and 25% exactly in the other category. And the great statistician Ari Fisher, he noticed this and basically he just he basically proved that Mendel while right in his science was overzealous. He wanted to perfect a result and he created charts with not enough variation.

2:14.0

And this has been a longstanding observation in data analysis.

2:17.0

When there isn't enough variation where there should be more,

2:20.0

that is a tip-off that something has been done to manipulate the data.

2:24.4

It doesn't tell you how necessarily.

...

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